This is how the war can end

First, China surprised the world with a 12-point peace plan, then suddenly the governments of Germany, France and Great Britain started talking about negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Over the weekend, more than 13,000 people demonstrated in Berlin for peace talks and a halt to arms deliveries.

What are the chances of negotiations and peace? What should be taken into account? What role can Switzerland, criticized by Russia, still play? Laurent Goetschel (57), director of the Swiss Peace Foundation (Swisspeace) in Basel, answers the most important questions.

• China: Beijing wants to bring the warring parties to the table with a twelve-point plan. In general, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (45) and the US are open to this – despite Beijing’s proximity to Moscow. “I wouldn’t underestimate this offer,” agrees Laurent Goetschel. “A mediator doesn’t have to be ‘right in the middle’ of a conflict. However, he must make it credible that he is not helping only one side. Otherwise it’s worthless.”

• NATO: According to the Wall Street Journal, NATO members Germany, France and Britain have asked Zelensky to consider peace talks. However, Goetschel does not believe that Putin sees Europeans as key players in this conflict. “He wants to play at the same level as the US and China.”

• Wagon servant/Schwarzer: The German former left party leader Sahra Wagenknecht (53) and the women’s rights activist Alice Schwarzer (80) call for consultation and an end to arms deliveries in a “Manifesto for Peace”, supported by more than 650,000 people. At the weekend they called for a demo in Berlin. Goetschel says: “You mainly drive a domestic political agenda. I consider them pointless in terms of foreign policy.”

• Turkey: Especially at the beginning of the war, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) tried to position himself internationally. He called for mediation and could at least negotiate the grain deal with the UN. “But now he has other concerns because of the consequences of the earthquake,” says Goetschel.

Basically anyone who hasn’t completely messed up with either party and who is considered fairly independent. In addition, they must have an interest and the ability to make themselves available for this position.

Goetschel includes the OSCE as well as countries such as Brazil, India, Kazakhstan and Israel. Norway, a successful Western European mediator, is excluded due to its NATO membership. The same applies to Finland and Sweden because of their security policy rapprochement with NATO.

Moscow rejects Switzerland as a mediator because of the sanctions it supports against Russia. “Switzerland is no longer a neutral state,” said Marija Zakharova (47), spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a few days ago.

Nevertheless, Goetschel believes: “Switzerland should still be considered more neutral in the eyes of Russia than most other actors that can be taken into account.” This applies at least as long as Switzerland does not supply arms to Ukraine, directly or indirectly.

Goetschel: “Personally, I see a role for Switzerland in supporting the investigation of war crimes. It could also take on this role if mediations are led by other actors.”

It is about the cessation of military combat operations, the return of territories and the political and security future of Ukraine. Guarantees also play an important role in this: will Ukraine become a member of NATO? If not, who guarantees their safety? In addition, it could also address issues of financial reparations and war crimes processing.

If negotiations start, it would mean that both sides would at least be interested in exploring the options for negotiation. “That would be a very positive first sign,” says Goetschel.

Only: at the moment it does not look like either party would be interested in this. Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) has not yet reached his goal. Kiev, on the other hand, does not want a ceasefire, which could strengthen the Russian army for new attacks.

The willingness of the parties must first be gauged. “That usually doesn’t happen in public. The parties want to avoid being seen as weak because of their willingness to negotiate,” says Goetschel.

It is also about surviving a first step towards domestic negotiations after months or years of talking about total victory or complete liberation. In addition to the two belligerents, other observing or accompanying countries or organizations may need to be present.

If a country takes over the mediation, there is a good chance that the negotiations will take place on its territory. If the UN led the mediation, Vienna or Geneva would be the most likely options. The same would apply if the mediation is led or coordinated by a group of actors.

Source: Blick