Suddenly everyone is talking about negotiations “Lower Saxony is the new Lapland” – northern lights in Germany and England

Is something moving in the war in Ukraine? Until recently, both warring sides seemed miles away from negotiations. Ukraine was intensively preparing for the announced spring offensive, while the Russian army was already launching a major offensive.

But now there are several reports that European governments are apparently pushing for a negotiated solution later this year. And signals are also coming from the Ukrainian government that indicate a willingness to talk.

What is it about? How likely are early negotiations? And who matters? The overview.

What is the “war ultimatum” for Zelensky about?

The speculation about peace negotiations was prompted by research by the American magazine Wall Street Journal (WSJ): According to this, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear to their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyj that he intended to open negotiations this year. turn out with Russia – what could be interpreted as a kind of “war ultimatum”. Specifically, according to the report, Macron Zelenskyy would have said that former arch-enemies France and Germany should also make peace after World War II.

According to the «WSJ», the background of this announcement to Zelenskyj was that despite public declarations of solidarity from the West for a Ukrainian victory, no one in NATO expects Kiev to liberate all Russian-held territories. “Nobody believes they (the Ukrainians) can bring Crimea back,” the paper quoted a French government official as saying. The “WSJ” draws on sources in the German, French and British governments.

According to the newspaper, the latest supplies of tanks and weapons from the West should enable Ukraine to liberate more areas. After that, however, negotiation is required. A “defence pact” drafted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and agreed with France and Germany aims to give Ukraine an additional incentive to negotiate with Russia. The pact provides security guarantees and continued arms assistance after the war – in return for a ceasefire and likely surrender of Ukrainian territories.

The Bild newspaper, citing German and US government circles, also reports that pressure on Zelenskyy to negotiate with Moscow could increase if Ukraine’s spring offensive fails. The newspaper speaks of a “war ultimatum” for Zelenskyj.

What is the position of the Ukrainian government?

It is unclear how serious these attempts at mediation are. The federal government partially denied the “WSJ” report. At the tripartite meeting in Paris, security guarantees “played no role at all”, a government spokesman said on Sunday. From a Ukrainian point of view, however, that would be an important point: without credible security guarantees from the West, Kiev will hardly interfere in talks.

Ukraine’s official position is: we are ready to negotiate, but only on the basis of Zelenskyy’s peace plan. This was confirmed by both Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk and Ukrainian Ambassador Oleksii Makeiev t-online. The plan provides, among other things, for the withdrawal of all Russian troops and the punishment of war crimes.

The first point, in particular, seems to make talks almost impossible: Putin has now declared several Ukrainian areas Russian state territory, and it is unrealistic that he would voluntarily give them up again.

Are the Ukrainians already negotiating with Russia?

It is considered certain that Putin is currently not interested in negotiations. However, there have recently been reports that Ukraine is negotiating with Russia beyond the head of the Kremlin. At least that is what Andriy Chernyak, a representative of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (HUR), suggests. “We also found cooperation mechanisms with people very close to Putin,” Chernyak said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Lefimerida a few days ago.

Do you really mean peace talks? When asked by t-online, Chernyak rowed back on Monday: “Negotiations with representatives of the terror state can only be conducted legally and agreed with the top government.” In plain language: there doesn’t seem to be much to this interpretation of his words.

What does Russia want?

From a Russian point of view, the timing also speaks against such and other possible negotiations. The Russian war machine is currently running at full speed: Russian troops and mercenaries of the Wagner militia are conducting offensive operations on many front sections. Particularly in Wuhledar and Bakhmut in the Donbass, the Kremlin army has concentrated its forces to lead new attacks.

The Russian offensive is the result of months of planning. Since last fall, hundreds of thousands of new soldiers have been recruited, equipped and sent to the front. According to information from Western secret services, the mobilization has not yet been completed and more soldiers are therefore expected. At the same time, Russia is sending more and more equipment and weapons to the front to penetrate deeper into Ukrainian territory.

Even though the Kremlin forces are advancing slowly and with heavy losses, as recently, there is much to suggest that the Russian leadership is currently focusing not on political solutions, but on military gains on the battlefield. Even in his most recent public appearances, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has shown little willingness to negotiate. Instead, he repeated his war lies about alleged Nazis in the Ukrainian government and the West as the actual aggressor.

Can China make a difference?

Russia experts say only one man can influence Kremlin chief Putin: Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader surprised many in the West last week when he sent his chief diplomat to present a 12-point “peace plan”. (Read more about it here.)

In it, China demands, among other things, respect for the territorial integrity of states, the renunciation of nuclear weapons, but also an end to the “cold war mentality” (an accusation against NATO). China has so far stayed out of the conflict, but now apparently wants to take a stronger position.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj was surprisingly positive about China’s plan this weekend: He shares several, if not all, points. He welcomed the fact that China is now speaking publicly about Ukraine and called for a meeting with Xi Jinping. So far, there have been no top-level government talks between Beijing and Kiev.

But whether China really wants to make a difference should be viewed with skepticism. There is increasing evidence that China could supply arms to Russia. China expert Klaus Mühlhahn also sees China’s peace plan as an attempt to remain neutral. China does not want to clearly condemn Russia for the offensive war, but at the same time does not want to fully support it, Mühlhahn recently told t-online. China’s goal is to keep states like Brazil and India out of the Western alliance and thus weaken the West.

It is quite unlikely that there will be any negotiations at this point. Both Ukraine and Russia currently rely on military solutions. Even though there are diplomatic initiatives, such as China’s now, or repeated concrete negotiations, for example on prisoner exchanges or grain exports, both countries stick to their maximum demands.

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