Portugal’s socialists continue to fall, but they are being asked to fulfill their mandate

If the parliamentary elections were held now in Portugal, they would leave a technical link between the two major formations: the Socialist Party and the Social Democratic Party. These are the data of the latest research by the Center for Studies and Opinion Research (Cesop) of the Catholic University.. They give the Socialists 32% of the vote (falling by 6 points compared to July 2022) and 31% to the PSD, which increases by one point. 53 percent of those surveyed rate the management of the Government as bad or very bad, but 70 percent believe that it is “best for the country” for the executive to fulfill its mandate.

Thus, just one year after the elections in which the socialists won an absolute majority, the composition of the Parliament could change drastically. This technical tie is not so much relevant because the conservatives are improving their results, but because the socialists are losing up to 9.5 points. This variation would be split between Chega (extreme right, which would reach 11%), Liberal Initiative (right) and Bloco de Esquerda, which would get 2.5 points, until they get 7%.

This would allow the four parties on the right to achieve 51% of the vote against 47% for the new left-wing geringen. But in that case, “red lines” to the Czech Republic also appear. Although the Liberal Initiative categorically refuses to agree to the extremist formation, the leader of the Social Democrats, Luis Montenegro, did not just decide whether a sanitary cordon would be established or not. The upcoming elections in Madeira could advance this. André Ventura, the leader of Chega, keeps insisting that a right-wing coalition is impossible without his party.

This last year, marked by numerous disputes within the Government and high inflation, it also hurt President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s ratingwhich is reaching its lowest level of popularity since he took office in 2016. His score of 12.2 can be attributed to his defense of the current executive, but also to controversial statements that draw iron from sexual abuse in the Church or on human rights in Qatar.