What about China’s peace plan What Putin says – and what he means by it: A first classification

The People’s Republic of China was officially neutral in the war in Ukraine for a year, but in fact represented Russia’s position. Now she surprisingly wants to present a peace plan on Friday, the anniversary of the Russian invasion. This was announced by China’s top foreign policy leader Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.

Wang was foreign minister until the end of last year and has since been responsible for foreign relations in the Politburo, the Communist Party’s highest power organ. Qin Gang, his successor as foreign minister, said in Beijing on Tuesday that China was “deeply concerned that the conflict could escalate and even spiral out of control”.

The choice of words is significant: Officially, China never talks about war, but about crisis, conflict or the “Ukraine question”. Wang Yi also adhered to this framing in Munich, which is why the peace initiative announced at the security conference was welcomed in principle, but also received with a lot of restraint and skepticism.

Play with gullibility

“China was unable to condemn the invasion. China could not say it was an illegal war,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. German Green Party politician and China expert Reinhard Bütikofer described the initiative as playing on the gullibility of people yearning for peace.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt China’s seriousness. President Xi Jinping supposedly gave the go-ahead for the invasion ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics to Vladimir Putin. With the course of the war unfavorable for Russia, he seemed to distance himself without breaking with Putin.

Review in Beijing

Can a Chinese peace plan work under these conditions? Something contradicts it. But there are also indications that China is interested in a ceasefire.

Ukraine’s robust resistance has led to a reconsideration in Beijing and a readiness for a ceasefire to prevent further Russian setbacks or even serious defeat, writes the Wall Street Journal’s China correspondent, citing people who close to Beijing’s center of power.

A weakened Russia should de facto subordinate itself to China and agree to cheap deals from Beijing’s perspective, for example in the energy sector. Yet Xi Jinping has little interest in Moscow and Vladimir Putin coming out of the war badly damaged, the said individuals told the Wall Street Journal.

Xi needs Putin for Alliance

That is understandable. At first glance, it may seem tempting for China to relegate Russia to a junior partner. But Xi Jinping wants to forge an alliance with Vladimir Putin against the West and especially the US to promote the “multipolar” world order that the two revanchist rulers strive for.

A Russia weakened by war and sanctions is not in Xi’s interest. In return, Beijing could provide arms. Over the weekend, the US urgently warned of such a scenario. On the other hand, Chinese weapons for Russia are likely to cause the escalation that Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke of.

Europe is being trapped

A ceasefire is the more obvious solution. China could also have Europeans in its sights. While relations with the US have recently become chilly again, partly due to the affair surrounding the alleged spy balloon, the Chinese have launched a real charm offensive towards Europe, for example at the WEF in Davos.

The calculation behind it is transparent: after three years of hard zero-Covid isolation, the Chinese economy is in decline. It depends more on the West than the other way around. In any case, Beijing wants to clean up relations with Europe and at the same time prevent the formation of a Euro-American bloc.

War fatigue in Europe

Moreover, Europe is much more directly affected by the war in Ukraine than the US. War fatigue is growing and with it the call for negotiations, especially in Germany, the People’s Republic’s most important economic partner in Europe. A Chinese peace plan could fall on fertile ground in such an environment.

But what might the plan look like? Wang Yi made only vague hints in Munich. The document, inspired by Xi Jinping’s “key proposals”, will be based on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, the principles of the UN Charter, the legitimate security interests of all countries and a peaceful solution to the crisis.

Ukraine reacts cautiously

However, with his attack on Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has flouted these principles. One wonders how China’s peace plan should work under these circumstances. Experts believe that little more is possible at the moment than a ceasefire and a “freeze” of the conflict along the current front lines.

Ukraine will hardly accept that. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also met Wang Yi in Munich. After the conversation, he reacted cautiously to the peace initiative. It is also in Ukraine’s interest for China to play a role in the search for peace. However, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is non-negotiable.

Putin under suspicion

“There are no compromises, not on the smallest square meter,” Kuleba insisted, reiterating President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position that Russia should withdraw from all occupied territories. However, the statement of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not mention this point at all.

And whether Russia is interested in peace must also be doubted after Vladimir Putin’s aggressive speech about the “state of the nation”. It reinforces suspicions that Putin would abuse a ceasefire to rearm his army, battered by heavy losses in men and equipment, and plan the next attack.