NATO is looking for a new Secretary General – these are the candidates Storm “Otto” disrupts air traffic in Denmark – Britain has left thousands without power

Oana Lungescu’s statement left little room for speculation. Jens Stoltenberg has already extended his term as Secretary General of NATO three times and he has been in office for almost nine years now, his spokeswoman told the media over the weekend. Before Stoltenberg, only the Dutchman Joseph Luns was longer in office, from 1971 he stayed for no less than 13 years.

There should be no further extension for Stoltenberg: “The term of office of the Secretary-General expires in October this year and he does not intend to seek a further extension of his mandate,” said Lungescu.

Rarely has the office of Secretary General of NATO been more important than it is today. French President Macron called the alliance “brain dead” in 2019, ex-US President Trump in 2017 “obsolete” – statements probably not made since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But if Stoltenberg retreats, the war may not be over yet. Can the Defense Alliance afford such a change at the top?

Extension due to war in Ukraine

Stoltenberg wanted to retire last year. At the beginning of February, he announced that he would step down from office in the autumn. A position as head of the central bank in his native Norway had already been negotiated. However, because of the war, Stoltenberg extended his tenure for another year. The position of central bank has now been assigned to someone else.

At first glance, it seems that the starting position has not changed since then. Nevertheless, Rafael Loss believes that the time has come to fill Stoltenberg’s position: “He held NATO together in difficult times,” the expert of the “European Council for Foreign Relations” summarized the Norwegian’s tenure in a interview with t online. According to him, a change in the first year of the war was of no use in guaranteeing stability. “In the second year of the war in Ukraine, NATO can prove it can work by presenting a new Secretary General.”

The tasks have not diminished in the past year: with Finland and Sweden, two more countries want to join the alliance. In addition, Stoltenberg is praying for NATO countries to increase their defense budgets: from 2025, the alliance’s rapid reaction force should be increased from the current 40,000 soldiers to around 300,000. In his position, Stoltenberg must above all mediate between the individual member states and negotiate compromises. Because NATO can only make decisions if all members agree.

“He’s Not Irreplaceable”

Matthias Dembinski of the Hessian Foundation for Peace and Conflict Research also believes that change is possible in the near future: the global political situation is not stable even now. “But unlike last year, NATO may have found a way to make such a change happen,” Dembinski said in an interview with t-online. “Stoltenberg has pushed a lot of important things in the last 12 months. But he is not irreplaceable,” says Rafael Loss.

The question remains: who should do it?

In principle, there is no orderly procedure for appointing NATO’s Secretary General: all member states must unanimously agree on a candidate who will subsequently hold the office for four years. Subsequently – as in the case of Stoltenberg – the term of office can be extended, provided that all NATO countries agree. A decision could already be taken at the NATO summit in July in Lithuania.

Names are already circulating: when Stoltenberg first announced his retirement last year, there were rumors about the Dutch prime minister Marc Ruth or the former British Prime Minister Teresa May. According to information from the newspaper “Welt”, Rutte is currently only getting opportunities from outsiders. Also the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez be a problem. The newspaper, on the other hand, also speculates about the current British defense minister Ben Wallacewhose name is also mentioned in the «New York Times».

Although it does not have to be an exclusion criterion: all the countries mentioned have already fulfilled the position in the past, the Netherlands and Great Britain each even three times. There is therefore speculation that for the first time a candidate from an Eastern or Central European country could be considered. Another criterion could weigh even more heavily: a woman has never held the position.

Matthias Dembinski therefore thinks it is “fairly realistic” that Stoltenberg will be followed by a woman. According to the “New York Times”, several people could be shortlisted: for example, the president of Slovakia, Zuzana Caputova or the former Croatian president, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovicas well as the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kay Callas.

The election of one of the candidates, all of whom clearly sided with Ukraine, could also send a signal to the Kremlin. However, Matthias Dembinski thinks NATO may be looking for someone who, like Stoltenberg, uses more careful language: “The days when NATO took Russian sensibilities into account are over. But maybe not all NATO countries share Ms Kallas’ attitude .”

Another name that comes up often is that of the Canadian Minister of Finance Chrystia Vrijland. Her election would also have a certain signaling effect: the 54-year-old’s family has roots in Ukraine. Before becoming a politician, she worked as a journalist in both Kiev and Moscow. In addition, Canada’s leadership of the defense alliance would also be a first.

One drawback, however, could be that Canada is currently missing NATO’s so-called 2 percent target: the target for each member state to spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense was last met by the country in the early 1990s – in unlike countries like Greece, Poland or the Baltic states. “It may also depend on how well the home country of the new secretary general fulfills its obligations to NATO,” said defense expert Rafael Loss.

So there is still a good chance that none of the names mentioned will eventually succeed Stoltenberg. “The selection of good candidates is huge,” says Matthias Dembinski.

The career of Jens Stoltenberg also shows how unpredictable elections can be: in the 1970s, the Norwegian demonstrated against the Vietnam War and threw stones at the American embassy in his home country. He later also campaigned for Norway to withdraw from the defense alliance. But he recognized early on that his position was wrong, Stoltenberg told ZDF last year and can’t help but laugh.