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The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not going as planned. The hoped-for three-day coup next week will turn into a year-long disaster with hundreds of thousands dead.

However, there were surprisingly few casualties in the Kremlin. The protagonists are still in the saddle, but trench warfare has also reached them. Currently, it appears that two groups are fighting each other.

The falcons

Much information about internal conflicts does not reach the West. What is known is the contempt of Wagner boss Prigoschin (“Putin’s cook”) for Defense Minister Shoigu and Supreme Commander Gerasimov. Together with the head of the Chechnya Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov (“Putin’s Bloodhound”), and deposed General Surovikin (“General Armageddon”), Prigozhin planned to depose Shoigu and take over the Ministry of Defense. This is reported by Vladimir Oschekin, founder of the Russian anti-corruption and human rights website Gulagu.net. Oschekin refers to an anonymous source.

The plan of the three conspirators was to achieve rapid battlefield success with the convicts they had recruited. The conquest of Bachmut may have been the ultimate goal. For months, the invaders have been struggling with the Ukrainian defenses. Up to 40,000 Wagner mercenaries would have already been eliminated.

With these (theoretical) successes as reference, Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin wanted to approach Vladimir Putin to demand changes: Surovikin wanted to become defense minister, Kadyrov would have wanted to take over the national guard and Prigozhin saw himself as head of the FSB secret service. The theory is supported by statements by Chechen State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov. Kadyrov’s spokeswoman in the Kremlin recently questioned the competence of the FSB. At the same time, he called for the presidency of a state agency for himself and Kadyrov so that they can act effectively against members of the country’s opposition.

Prigozhin, on the other hand, knows that as long as the FSB has compromising material on him, he has no political future. “Putin’s cook” was first imprisoned at the age of 18 and later served a 12-year prison term, which he was able to terminate early for good behavior. The kompromat is said to date from this period. Human rights activist Oschekin believes that Prigozhin will not survive this year: “As one knows Putin’s actions, he will be disposed of”.

The party soldiers

Defense Minister Shoigu is an old confidant of Putin. He belongs to the Siloviki group, the president’s closest circle of trust. He has already spent the summer holidays with him and they both live in Rublevka, the luxury and mansion district west of Moscow.

Shoigu’s appearance is much less striking than Yevgeny Prigozhin’s. There are no social media posts with ex-convicts. But he pulls the strings in the background. The Kremlin instructed all propaganda media not to “promote excessively” Prigozhin in the future. In concrete terms, this means that Prigozhin must be silenced in the future. This was confirmed by the political analyst Sergei Markov in the New York Times. It is not known who actually gave the instruction.

Sergei Shoigu is also said to be behind the recruitment ban for convicts. He kills several birds with one stone. He weakens Prigozchin’s Wagner – and strengthens his own mercenaries. According to Ukrainian sources, the private military unit (PMC) called “Patriot” has already been spotted in the Donbass. She is close to the Defense Secretary and is said to also work with recruited convicts. While Wagner units earn about $3,000 a month, Patriot fighters earn between $6,000 and $15,000. Price war in the Russian mercenary system.

Observers strongly doubt that two private units competing for personnel, ammunition, funds and other resources will have a positive effect on the course of the war.