The balloon affair does not fit into the concept in either China or the US. The new economic policy is grand, green and mean

Tuesday evening local time, Joe Biden will deliver his annual State of the Union Address at the Capitol. According to observers, the 80-year-old US president wants to pre-empt his bid for a second term, which has not yet been officially announced. The focus will therefore be on Biden’s achievements, such as the climate and infrastructure programs.

But now the “State of the Union” speech has been overshadowed by the affair surrounding a suspected spy balloon from China that flew over US military installations before being shot down off the East Coast on Saturday. It keeps the United States in suspense for days. Republicans blame Biden for belatedly ordering the shooting.

Their attempt to exploit the affair suffered a setback when General Glen VanHerck, commander of the North American Air Defense Forces (NORAD), said on Monday that at least three balloons had entered US airspace during Donald Trump’s tenure. They escaped because of a “hole” in the defense mechanism.

China apologizes

The espionage missions were not discovered until later through Secret Service findings, VanHerck said. Recently, another Chinese balloon had appeared that had crossed several Latin American countries. It is suspected that he was also aiming for the US and had drifted south.

The foreign ministry in Beijing expressed regret and spoke of a “civilian research balloon” that had gone off course. The same justification had been used for the balloon spotted over the United States. Even then, China’s response deviated noticeably from the often very aggressive tone of recent years.

Try to relax

Only after the shooting did Beijing’s choice of words intensify. The US government was accused of a “manifest overreaction”. Nevertheless, it is striking that both parties are trying to prevent an escalation. A further deterioration of the relationship that has eroded in recent years does not suit both China and the US.

The two superpowers had recently tried to relax. In November, heads of state Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met for talks at the G20 summit in Indonesia. Then there was a thaw. The next step was scheduled for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last week.

Xi wanted to visit Blinken

It would have been the first trip to China by a senior US official in four years. However, after the balloon incident, Blinken postponed his visit. A new date has not yet been determined. According to experts, Beijing in particular has a great interest in restoring the faltering relationship.

Xi Jinping wanted Blinken’s visit, Steve Tsang of the University of London told CNN: “Xi wants to revive China’s economy after the disaster of the zero Covid policy and the US measures against semiconductor production. He had no interest in a ballooning incident that would frustrate such a meeting.”

Depends on the US

China is still economically dependent on the United States. The Biden administration’s efforts to gain independence from China for sensitive products are being watched with concern. At the same time, with the end of the zero-Covid policy, the narrative that the People’s Republic had mastered the pandemic better than the “decadent” West imploded.

China experts therefore wonder why the spy balloon was sent to the US at this sensitive moment. Some blame the sprawling bureaucracy of the Communist Party, where one hand often doesn’t know what the other is doing. There was a lack of coordination with politicians when planning the balloon missions.

A coup by the “hawks”?

“The national leadership in Beijing felt angry and surprised by this balloon,” University of Chicago political scientist Dali Yang told CNN. As justification, he referred to the State Department’s initial response, which was “unusually forgiving”: “They were hoping for a good outcome.”

This could point to a much less pleasant version of events, which experts say is also possible. Accordingly, the “hawks” in the People’s Liberation Army and in the balloon security apparatus deliberately worked for an escalation to prevent an easing of relations with the “arch-enemy” US.

This is not least about the “renegade” island of Taiwan. Hardliners in Beijing are flirting with a military ‘solution’ and at the party congress last October, Xi Jinping did not rule out a violent reconquest. However, an attack on Taiwan could spark a war between China and the US and thus a major conflagration.

It doesn’t help that Kevin McCarthy, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, was planning a trip to Taipei last year, just like his predecessor Nancy Pelosi. In this case, China would react much more violently than in the balloon affair. It is in the interest of both sides that Antony Blinken will soon make up his visit to Beijing.