Putin’s big offensive: where Russia is most likely to attack London cop risks decades in jail for rape

February 24, 2023 marks the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nothing came of the planned coup. Instead, the bitter war of attrition has so far claimed more than 200,000 lives. There is no end in sight. On the contrary. Experts are sure that the worst months of the war are yet to come and that Russia is planning a major offensive: “We know how much they [die russische Regierung, Anm. d. Red.] love symbolism. We therefore assume that they are planning something around February 24,” Ukraine’s defense minister told French broadcaster BFMTV last week.

Three scenarios in particular are mentioned again and again: a new attack on Kiev, an attack on Zaporizhia in the south and an attack in the east.

Another march against Kiev

Before the invasion, Moscow assumed that the enemy army would soon collapse and that the civilian population would euphorically greet the occupiers. The ambitions were correspondingly high and the attack attempts correspondingly amateurish. The kilometre-long monster convoy on Kiev got stuck, was wiped out and had to return without achieving anything. Russia received a first serious embarrassment. In addition, the embarrassment for Kiev revealed the huge logistical problems.

Still, some Western experts do not categorically rule out a new attack on the capital. According to the line of reasoning, Putin has not yet revised his actual war goals.

The shortest way to Kiev is via Belarus. There are currently 12,000 Russian soldiers stationed there. Not enough to take over a multi-million city. In comparison, Russia has not yet succeeded in taking Bakhmut, even with a multitude of soldiers. The city in the northeast of the oblast is many times smaller with 70,000 inhabitants (before the war). There are also modified signs. Russia expected a benevolent population and thus a relatively trouble-free long-term occupation. But instead of flowers, there was a barrage. The question of how to control a city dripping with hate is likely to attract attention in Moscow.

An attack from Zaporizhia

Like Luhansk and Donetsk, Zaporizhia is one of four regions annexed by Russia in a mock referendum. And like Luhansk and Donetsk, Zaporizhia Oblast was never completely conquered. The local nuclear power plant is under Russian control, but not the city of the same name on the banks of the Dnipro and the hydroelectric power station located there. Both are seen as potential targets of a major Russian offensive. This is supported by the fact that according to an adviser to the exiled mayor of Mariupol, an additional 10,000 to 15,000 Russian units were stationed in southeastern Mariupol.

Meanwhile, the occupiers have cut off internet access in the devastated city on the Sea of ​​Azov. The population depends on Russian sources of information. These reported orders to attack the cities of Wuhledar and Zaporizhia, as well as several areas southwest of Bakhmut and in Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian observers believe this is a pure disinformation campaign. An offensive in the south is hard to imagine for them.

An attack in the east

The Luhansk and Donetsk regions have been heavily fought over since the beginning of the war. Despite enormous efforts and high casualties, the invaders have not yet managed to fully control the two oblasts. The trench warfare is currently raging mainly around Bachmut. The salt metropolis of Ukraine was almost completely destroyed.

The Ukrainian secret service reports that Vladimir Putin’s patience has now run out. The Russian rulers are said to have given the order in mid-January to completely conquer the two oblasts by the end of March. There should be no shortage of manpower. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksey Reznikov, Russia is said to have mobilized about 500,000 soldiers. Many of them are already at the border: “Officially 300,000 have been announced, but we see the troops at the border. And we assume a much higher number.” It is believed that the Kremlin wants its soldiers to flee without regard for casualties.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, also believes in an offensive in Luhansk and Donetsk. The civilian population had been driven from their homes there. This is an attempt to prevent Russian positions from being betrayed to the Ukrainian army.

Most experts therefore believe in a major offensive in eastern Ukraine. The speech of Valery Gerasimov on December 22, 2022 also speaks for this. The commander-in-chief of the attack on Ukraine already stated at the time that the conquest of the Donbas was one of the most important war goals.