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American historian David Frum sees no point in Ukraine negotiating peace with Russia. The former speechwriter for then US President George W. Bush thinks conversations are wrong. Frum has long analyzed the war in Ukraine and international politics. He is credited with inventing the term Axis of Evil, which George W. Bush used to describe Iran, Iraq, and North Korea.

On Twitter, he argues against negotiations with Putin in five statements. Russia has fought two wars in Chechnya since 1991, violated the borders of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, intervened in the war in Syria and in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. “It is often said that wars end in negotiations. But none of the Russian conflicts ended that way,” Frum writes.

However, in the first Chechen war there was a peace treaty that was signed in 1997. However, he left the status of the country open and the skirmishes flared up again a short time later. The Minsk agreement also interrupted fighting between pro-Russian fighters and the Ukrainian army, but did not stop Moscow’s actual efforts.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia are repeatedly evoked from different sides. But the positions are far apart. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stressed his demand for the return of Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea. Russia does comment on the negotiations, but then demands security guarantees for its occupied territories and repeatedly a “denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine”, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently emphasized.

Many conflicts were frozen without resolution after the end of the Soviet Union. Russia has repeatedly appropriated territories. The Kremlin is quite happy that some conflicts are still smoldering – so it didn’t have to make concessions, says the historian. Russia is therefore not ready for actual negotiations unless it has an advantage beyond the existing situation.

If the invasion of Ukraine ended today, it would remain a “frozen conflict”. Russia has little to negotiate, it already controls Crimea and areas in Luhansk and Donetsk. That would initially be enough for Moscow, the analyst estimates. The loser would be Ukraine. The country remains exposed to Russian threats.

For Frum, there is only one reason that could force Russia to negotiate at all: the fear that Russia will lose the war against Ukraine. And so catastrophic that talking could become a possible alternative.

Frum’s conclusion: arm Ukraine in such a way that Russia fears defeat. One way to thwart the negotiations is to keep Frum in arms and give Russia hope to maintain the status quo. (when/d-online)