German expert: “We will see Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine” Egg prices in the US explode – guess where in the world they are highest

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains firm and does not supply main battle tanks to Ukraine. Are you surprised that Germany resists pressure from its partners?
LIANA FIX: No, because it is not the first time that we see Germany take steps forward and break through previously drawn red lines, but only very slowly. What we are seeing now is a logical consequence of Germany’s previous actions in the war in Ukraine and a symptom that the country does not want to play a leading role in Europe.​

Does this mean that you expect Germany to eventually allow the supply of main battle tanks?
Yes, because in all these episodes, the decisions were ultimately made in the interest of Ukraine. But it is bitter that much precious time elapses before you reach this point, and that Germany loses its credibility in the process. I am optimistic that we will see Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine. It is the type of tank that many European countries have and that Ukraine can really use in its spring offensive.

What is the reason for Germany’s eternal braking?
I think it’s a miscalculation of risk. Namely that without the US as a nuclear power, which is on a par with Russia, one does not want to continue. They are constantly waiting for the US not to let the conflict with Putin escalate alone. Any move that could lead to an escalation between NATO and Russia should be avoided

Is this concern unjustified?
It may be justified, because Putin keeps threatening to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal. In the specific case, however, it is unclear why Marder armored personnel carriers were allowed by the German side, but Leopard main battle tanks represent an escalation.

You have to explain that.
Whether it is a Marder infantry fighting vehicle or a Leopard main battle tank – in the context of the war in Ukraine, both are used to defend against an aggressor. Everything Ukraine does militarily is in self-defense. That fear that Ukraine would want to conquer Russian territory is, in my view, unfounded. Battle tanks are also necessary for defense, for example to drive Russian troops from their positions on Ukrainian national territory.

Britain wants to supply main battle tanks. Does the fact that the country has nuclear weapons affect the decision?
No, it is not about the nuclear arsenal of individual countries, but about the alliance that defends together. Because Article 5 of NATO protects the members of the alliance. This means that the alliance partners stand behind an attacked NATO state in the event of an attack. Of course Britain has a different strategic and military culture than Germany and therefore a greater willingness to take risks.

So if Russia attacked Germany, would the US risk its own territory and assist Germany?
What you are talking about is the principle of nuclear deterrence. It works particularly well in Moscow and avoids the spiral of escalation you describe. So it doesn’t matter if the US goes along with the main battle tanks or European countries go it alone. Article 5 for the alliance case protects them. In addition to Article 5, Germany naturally wants extra protection for the US.

Observers see Putin with his back to the wall during the war. Weapons will be scarce this year. How do you see it?
Yes, in fact, Russia is very challenged in this regard. It now depends very much on how much Russia can reproduce and how much help there is from supporters like Iran.

Observers see Putin with his back to the wall during the war. Weapons will be scarce this year. How do you see it?
Therein lies the very idea of ​​​​the waves of mobilization of Russia. The question now, of course, is how many more people Putin can recruit without causing discontent in the country to become too great. The effect of mass is also put into perspective when the training level of the troops is so poor, as has been shown in recent months in the Russian army. If it stays that way, Ukraine will of course have an advantage thanks to Western support.

So what is your forecast for the second year of the war in Ukraine?
In 2023 there will be a turning point in this war. There must be a tipping point, otherwise the war threatens to drag on and the exhaustion of Ukraine and its Western backers threatens. Western support proves this goal. Thanks to her, Ukraine is now preparing for a spring offensive. One such desirable event could be Ukraine’s ability to liberate more territory and cut off the land bridge to Crimea, which Russia still controls. This would decisively weaken the Russian forces.

What path would such a turn pave?
A road to negotiations or to scenarios that cannot be foreseen at the moment. The war could also result in a collapse of the Russian military or a domestic challenge to President Putin. (bzbasel.ch)