In Russian military doctrine, the soldier is seen primarily not as a person, but as a resource – supplies for the meat grinder of merciless warfare. If Vladimir Putin really wants to launch the expected major offensive in the coming weeks, stabilize the situation in the annexed Donbass and push to overthrow the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, he needs significantly more troops. Rumors are circulating in Russia about an imminent second wave of mobilization. There is even talk of general mobilization.
Photos from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut show how hard the war is being waged: torn trees tower into the sky, lifeless bodies lie around. Forests have become a crater landscape, residential areas a dead zone. For weeks, Russian soldiers storm and die attacking Ukrainian positions. According to Russia, with the strong participation of mercenaries, the nearby city of Soledar was allegedly captured. Ukraine denied.
Thousands killed and hardly any land gained
If the allegations from Moscow are correct, that would be a tactical success, as Washington’s Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has determined – but ultimately a pyrrhic victory: the next Ukrainian defensive walls are already a few miles to the west. In the middle of the war, casualty numbers cannot be verified, but the toll on both sides is likely to be enormous. Preliminary balance: thousands dead and hardly any land gain.
On New Year’s Day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov spoke directly to the Russian people: “I’m sure you have another week.” Then the next mobilization will begin. The deadline was January 5, but the Kremlin did not respond. The possible date is now circulating January 15, so today.
But observers consider it unlikely that Putin will publicly confirm this. In doing so, he would confirm the prediction from Kiev and strengthen Reznikov’s authority. Ukraine’s defense minister, on the other hand, is less interested in specifying a precise date than in alarming the enemy. It was no coincidence that his speech was published on the YouTube platform, which is not blocked in Russia. Resnikov should be aware that only Putin decides if and when to announce further mobilization.
Putin faces a dilemma
From a military point of view, however, it is long overdue, as the bitter defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson have shown. The anniversary of the start of the invasion is coming soon and Putin needs verifiable successes with increasing urgency. Taking Soledar would be too trivial in terms of military tactics.
The Russians are struggling with many things, from a lack of equipment to dwindling ammunition supplies. In theory, only soldiers would have had enough. The Ukrainians can mobilize about a million reservists – Russia would have 30 times as many available. For Ulrich Schmid, professor of Russian culture and society at the University of St. Gallen, it seems clear that Putin faces a dilemma. “He needs more military personnel, but cannot recruit them openly.” The mass flight after mobilization on September 21 showed: “Many are not ready to die for Russia.” Putin must prevent society from antagonizing further.
At the beginning of the invasion, the Kremlin claimed that Russian mothers should not fear for their sons’ lives: “Only professionals fight in Ukraine.” After the partial mobilization in the fall, it was said that the reservists called up were sufficient. Schmid says, “For further mobilization or even general mobilization, Putin would have to admit impending defeat. And he fears it as the devil fears holy water.”
Men brutally arrested on the street
But under the September 21 mobilization decree, the Russian army can continue to secretly recruit reservists. The corresponding decree is not limited in time and can only be revoked by another decree – which Putin has not issued. The authorities, meanwhile, only announced a pause in the mobilization process to handle the recruitment of conscripts between October 1 and December 31. The mobilization centers were unable to manage both processes simultaneously.
Maria Kuznetsowa, spokeswoman for the human rights organization OVD-Info: “Now nothing stands in the way of a full resumption of mobilization.” The so-called “second mobilization” will be expressed in rapidly increasing numbers. In principle, Kuznetsova continues, reservists have been called up continuously since the beginning of the first wave: “We know of some cases, especially in December, where men were brutally arrested in the streets and taken to mobilization centers – even in Moscow.”
The ruler in the Kremlin is aware that there is no independent way to check whether – as announced – 300,000 or ultimately 600,000 reservists have been called up. He urgently needs more soldiers. But he will not announce a second mobilization wave, but simply carry it out.