Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) appointed Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov (67) as the new commander of the Russian armed forces on Wednesday. His predecessor Sergei Surovikin (56) was demoted and is now one of Gerasimov’s three deputies.
Western experts and Ukrainian officials are sure: behind the change of power there is no ordinary personal castling. Rather, a ruthless power struggle is raging within the Russian military leadership.
Since his promotion in October, Surovikin is rapidly gaining influence. He became the darling of the propaganda media and personally exchanged views with Putin. Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (67) may not have liked that.
Very popular with the Wagner boss
But there were also failures on the battlefield. Surovikin was responsible for the withdrawal from the strategically important city of Kherson and the devastating Ukrainian rocket attack in Makiivka that killed 89 Russian soldiers. Now he had to leave the post as sole commander in chief.
The hardliner Surovikin was very popular with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigoshin (61). Again and again, the head of the infamous group of mercenaries verbally fired in the direction of Defense. On the other hand, the dark businessman always found words of praise for Surovikin.
ISW: “Internal Power Struggle” in Russia’s Military Leadership
Rob Lee of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) therefore suspects a political motive behind Surovikin’s demotion. “I don’t think this is because Surovikin is seen as a failure,” he tweeted.
“Maybe it was political reasons. Prigozhin has always spoken out for Surovikin. This could now be the answer to the growing influence of the Wagner group.” Russia’s most recent successes in Ukraine can mainly be attributed to Wagner boss Prigozhin and his mercenaries.
The experts of the American think tank “Institute for the Study of War (ISW)” are also concerned with the subject of power struggles. “The favoritism of Gerasimov and the Russian Defense Ministry towards Surovikin, a protégé of Prigozhin, was a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian Defense Ministry in an internal Russian power struggle,” the ISW report said. Wednesday.
With the leadership change, the Kremlin not only wants to improve the “Russian command and control structure for a decisive military effort in 2023”, but also to strengthen the defense ministry’s position against Prigozhin and increasingly critical military bloggers.
“It’s only a matter of time before they fight”
Not only is there a mess in the leadership, internal conflicts can also arise on the battlefield. Oleksii Danilov (60), secretary of the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, is convinced that a power struggle between “three and a half armies” will arise in Ukraine. The soldiers of the Ministry of Defense take on the fighters of Wagner boss Prigozhin and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (46).
Kadyrov and Prigozhin have repeatedly criticized the Defense Ministry for military failures in the past. Conversely, no one in the Russian military has any respect for Prigozhin, Danilov explains.
In addition, the Russian law enforcement officers are setting up their own army – which troops he means by that, is not clear from the analysis. The conclusion of the Ukrainian official, on the other hand, is crystal clear: “It is only a matter of time before they argue with each other.”