Is Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) now preparing his navy for a major attack? The Russian Navy has suddenly sent a large number of ships and submarines to the Black Sea in recent weeks. This is evident from observations by the American naval expert HI Sutton.
More than 25 Russian ships and submarines are currently stationed in the region, according to the US Department of Defense – more than ever before. Among other things, Russia moved the “Pyotr Morgunov” to the Black Sea. The Ivan Gren-class DropShip was used last October to transport goods between Russia and the Crimean city of Sevastopol after Ukraine’s attack on the Crimean Bridge.
In recent weeks, the “Pyotr Morgunov” has been largely anchored in the southern Russian city of Novorossiysk. But now she unexpectedly left the port on Tuesday and is sailing – together with three Kilo submarines – towards Sebastopol. According to Sutton, other previously unknown warships are said to have left the port of Novorossiysk. Only a few warships would have remained in port.
Exercise or military operation?
Experts warn of a possible escalation of tensions in the region. According to Sutton, the Ukrainian defense ministry is also looking at the sudden increase in Russian activities in the Black Sea. This information was not confirmed by the Ukrainian side.
According to Sutton, there are several variants for the sudden movement of the ships. First, it can be an exercise. Russia has carried out repeated maneuvers in the Black Sea in recent weeks. However, because Putin’s warships are at risk of being hit by Ukrainian drones outside the port, the Russian navy has taken security measures. So the submarines and warships usually only move in small groups. According to Sutton, three submarines and a warship are unlikely to face this threat at the same time.
Therefore, the navy is more likely to carry out an operation, according to the expert. After the last major moves just before Christmas, Putin unleashed a hail of missiles over Ukraine. However, only two submarines were sighted in the Black Sea at the time, the warships remained in a safe haven. It is unclear why the warship is now sailing towards Crimea.
Messages again and again
Last but not least, the possibility of a land maneuver cannot be ruled out, Sutton reports. For example, Russia could do reconnaissance work in southwestern Ukraine in order to drop troops there in the future. Given the current war situation, it seems unlikely that Russia is already attacking Ukraine with troops from the Black Sea.
In recent months, there have been repeated reports of maneuvers and troop movements in the region that could be interpreted as provocations. However, the Russian Navy has always emphasized that the latest maneuvers are only part of a regular exercise and do not pose a threat. The Kremlin has not yet commented on the latest maneuvers.
It remains to be seen if the recent developments are actually part of a regular exercise or if there is more to it. The situation in the Black Sea remains tense. (zis)