Moscow military infighting: Putin demoted “General Armageddon” – that’s behind Spain wants to supply Swiss war material to Ukraine, but federal government says no

There have long been reports of differences in the Russian military leadership. Now Vladimir Putin made another change in the highest military circles on Wednesday, leaving room for speculation. He demoted his previous commander in chief for operations in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin. It was only last October that he reinstated the general in this position. It was supposed to herald the major turn in Russia’s favor in the war.

Together with two other military officers, Surovikin is now just a deputy to Valeri Gerasimov, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Army, who is now primarily responsible for the strategic actions of the war.

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Surovikin, 56, enjoys an objectively questionable reputation, but one that is outstanding in Russian military circles. He had proven himself, among other things, with his unscrupulous but successful approach to the Syrian war, which is why the Russian media nicknamed him “General Armageddon”.

But after the Russian invasion continued to falter after Surovikin’s appointment as commander-in-chief, doubts arose. Russian military bloggers, in particular, increasingly focused on the general.

Surovikin’s new boss, Valery Gerasimov, is under even more fire. Several bloggers hold the 67-year-old responsible for the sometimes chaotic behavior of the Russian army during the war.

A video recently circulated of mercenaries from the Wagner Group sharply criticizing Gerasimov for the lack of support for their units and calling him swear words. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin then supported his soldiers, renewing indications of major disagreements in Russia’s military leadership.

The justification for castling – and the demotion itself – reads like a personal defeat for Surovikin. In fact, the experienced general also had to accept setbacks. These included the withdrawal from Kherson and the devastating attack on a Russian barracks that killed at least 89 during Surovikin’s tenure. Now the Russian Ministry of Defense officially wants to “increase the effectiveness of the military operation” with castling.

But some experts have expressed doubts whether the change is actually about improving military capabilities. For example, Rob Lee of the US Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia writes that he does not believe Surovikin will be seen as a failure. It is quite possible that there are political reasons for the relegation.

In the thread, Lee explains in detail what he suspects behind these “political reasons”. It’s all about the role of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. He tries to profile himself as the face of the Russian armed forces and presents himself professionally, for example by appearing at the (alleged) front, having himself photographed there with soldiers and responding to their needs.

Prigozhin also tried to use the bitter struggle for Soledar village to his advantage. His Wagner mercenaries play a crucial role there. Prigozhin announced early on that his units had captured the city. The Ukrainian side denies this, but should Soledar actually fall, Prigozhin could use this victory as propaganda for himself and thus gain more respect and influence.

And the more powerful Prigozhin becomes, the more likely he is to pose a threat to Vladimir Putin. “Prigozhin poses a threat to Putin,” ETH military expert Marcel Berni told Blick. So it is possible that the reshuffling puts the wind out of the sails of his former close confidant, who is sometimes referred to as “Putin’s cook.”

He also promoted the unpopular Gerasimov to chief of operations in Ukraine and gave him the opportunity to make himself the face of eventual successes in the war – which the Russian president would probably prefer rather than if Yevgeny Prigozhin could continue to present himself as a successful soldier. .

However, the question remains open what will happen if the successes do not continue as desired.