Putin gambled: “The warm winter in Europe is a hard blow” Switzerland and Co. with a difference – 30 maps showing where most people live.

The idea that a cold winter would bring Europe to its knees is widespread in Russia. A Russian propaganda video was already doing the rounds on social media in September.

In the first sequence of the video, a man in a Gazprom uniform can be seen turning off a gas tap. Cold fog passes over the land, the landscapes are covered with snow. The video is accompanied by a song released in 2015 by Russian singer Varvara Wizbor. In German, the song means: “Winter is going to be great.”

Full gas storage thanks to high temperatures

So far there has not been a cold winter in Europe. Russia appears to be wrong again as no European country is considering lifting sanctions against Russia due to a “big winter”.

Against Putin’s hopes, Europe currently has enough gas. This confirms Christian Opitz, head of the energy management competence center (ior/cf-HSG) at the HSG. He says security of supply in Northern Europe is stable despite pipeline transport restrictions. He cites the increased import of liquefied gas and an increase in Norwegian production in favor of European supply as the reason.

He further states: “Due to the warm temperatures, most European gas storage facilities can even be refilled since the end of December; the average fill level is currently around 83 percent.”

Putin has often been wrong

It is not the first time that Putin has guessed wrong: the professor of culture and society in Russia, Ulrich Schmid, is convinced that Putin was already making wrong assumptions before the outbreak of the war.

By the end of 2021, before the outbreak of war, gas prices across Europe had already risen. That was due to a shortage, explains the professor. At the time, Russia did not drive up the gas price itself. Schmid clarifies: “At the same time, Russia did nothing to lower the price again.”

The high gas prices would of course have played into Russia’s hands, so Russia deliberately did nothing to counteract the prices: “Part of Putin’s calculation was that the sanctions would certainly not be so severe because the situation on the gas market was already tense. But that was not the case. That was one of Putin’s many miscalculations,” Schmid said.

West not blackmailable with gas

Vladimir Putin not only underestimated the resistance of the Ukrainian army and overestimated the combat power of his own troops, he also did not expect the West to punish Russia so massively, the Russia expert explains.

“Germany was very quick to impose sanctions in the gas sector. On February 21, before the official start of the war, Germany stopped the certification process for Nord Stream 2, which was an unexpected development even for me,” emphasizes Schmid.

The professor indicates that this should have been a key moment for the president: “Putin should have noticed then that the West could not be blackmailed with gas if there was a military attack on Ukraine.”

Explosions at Nord Stream

Schmid lists another point where Putin was wrong: the impact of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions in September. The expert notes that the explosions were probably not an act of sabotage by Russia.

There is no reason for Russia to permanently destroy this infrastructure, because energy supplies to the West can simply be cut off by turning off the gas tap, says Schmid.

In the aftermath of those blasts, the Russian president said at an energy forum in Moscow that Russia would return to supplying gas to the West if the West lifted its sanctions. Schmid says, “That was another wishful thinking.”

But that’s not all, now mild temperatures are once again thwarting the plans of the Kremlin chief: “The warm winter in Europe is a hard blow to Putin,” said Schmid.

Situation can escalate quickly

Despite the high temperatures and full gas tanks, one should not be misled by the false sense of security, explains energy expert Opitz.

“The full gas storage tanks and the mild temperatures are a snapshot, the situation can quickly escalate again,” he notes. The HSG teacher adds that the recent cold spell in the US clearly shows that the situation in Europe can change again very quickly.

Opitz emphasizes that it is always advisable – even if there is no acute shortage – to use electricity and gas sparingly: “We can save all resources that we do not need now for a later date.”