Sergei Surovikin (56) was appointed commander of Russian troops in Ukraine only in October. Now he is already out of the post. Instead, Russian Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov (67) will take charge. What are the reasons for the change in the top management of the Russian army?
Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” in the Russian-Syrian mission due to brutal airstrikes, has recently been criticized and met with little success. The withdrawal from the strategically important city of Kherson in early November was not well received domestically. For example, the Kremlin-related ideologue Alexander Dugin (60) clearly spoke out against the general’s decisions. “The limit has been reached,” Dugin told online news portal Tsargrad. In the Donbass, the Russian army under Surovikin could not achieve any significant successes.
Others reported successes. The mercenaries of the Wagner group announced Tuesday evening that they had captured the strategically important city of Soledar. Ukraine on Wednesday denied claims that the city was under Russian control. But: “In recent weeks, the Wagner mercenaries in Bachmut and Soledar have made progress. If Soledar is actually captured, this naturally increases the effect of the group. Similar successes are now expected from the military,” military expert Marcel Berni (34), strategy expert at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich, told Blick.
Now the “special operation” has a top priority
With the appointment of Valeri Gerasimov, Vladimir Putin (70) is raising the invasion of Ukraine to the highest military-strategic level, Berni explains. The 67-year-old was previously the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Russia’s “chief military chief” now takes over.
That Gerasimov is now the supreme commander in Ukraine, according to Berni, is also a political message from Kremlin chief Putin. Means: The “special operation” is a boss’s business. The Russian president is ready to continue the war in Ukraine for a long time. It is fitting that Moscow justified the redeployment with an “extension of the scope of tasks to be solved” and the need for closer cooperation between the individual parts of the army.
However, Berni thinks the personnel change will not change much in the starting position. “Ukraine will not be upset by this,” the expert analyses.
Wagner mercenaries curse Gerasimov
At the same time, fate is now decided by a man hated by the Wagner mercenaries and their boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin (61). According to “The Daily Beast”, a video of Wagner mercenaries cursing Gerasimov emerged in late December. The fighters felt left alone at the front and complained about the lack of support from the army. People even call Gerasimov a “damned bastard”.
With castling, Putin may be trying to take the wind out of his former confidant and growing competitor, Prigozhin. Because: “Prigozhin is a threat to Putin,” says Berni. Is this strategy successful? There was also prompt criticism of the change in leadership.
“Special operation” becomes a top priority
Regarding General Alexander Lapin, who was only appointed Chief of Staff of the Army on Tuesday, political scientist Abbas Galliamov noted: “Yesterday Lapin, today Gerasimov and Surovikin. All these rearrangements of the same people from one chair to another, taking place at the height of the fighting, testify to all that is possible – but not that ‘everything is going according to plan’».
Surovikin is not completely out the window. He is now one of Gerasimov’s three deputies. The trio would also include Oleg Saliukov, the head of Russia’s land forces. Third in the group is Deputy Chief of General Staff Alexei Kim.
Rob Lee of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) suspects a completely different political motive behind Surovikin’s demotion. “I don’t think this is because Surovikin is seen as a failure,” he tweeted. “Maybe it was political reasons. Prigozhin has always spoken out for Surovikin. This could now be the answer to the growing influence of the Wagner group.”