New weapons and people’s inventive minds: what gives hope in the war in Ukraine US President Joe Biden does not travel to WEF in Davos

The winter in Ukraine has been relatively mild so far. As a result, there was largely no serious freezing due to the Russian attacks on the power supply and district heating. For example, Odessa on the Black Sea suffers from a lack of electricity, where power outages in districts – as in many other cities – are part of everyday life. During this time, usually a few hours a day, the circulation pumps for the central heating also fail and it becomes cool in the homes.

After a stay of three weeks and more than 4,500 car kilometers across Ukraine, the following can be said: The attacks on infrastructure seem to have particularly affected the major population centers of Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipro, while smaller cities, for example in the Donbass, there are often fewer electricity shortages. Everyone who can afford it has bought a generator.

In the old center of Odessa with its chic clothing stores and restaurants, these engines make a deafening noise during a power cut. Even the huge Christmas tree on the edge of the Stadtgarten is lit with its own generator. The Christmas period lasts until this weekend in Ukraine.

Used to the lack of electricity

In Kiev, on the other hand, there are far fewer generators in the city center and some public buildings remain lit at night. For example, even when most streetlights are off, a flower farm on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River illuminates the clouds as if a giant floodlight is shining in the night sky. And tall buildings near the international airport are still red warning lights, even though no planes have taken off or landed since last February. While in Kiev, Odessa or Dnipro most shops, restaurants and hotels are operating normally, it is not easy to find an open bar in the evening in eastern Kharkov.

On the other hand, the situation in a strip of about 20 kilometers at the front is desolate. Many villages are partially destroyed, there is no running water or electricity, and most people use wood for heating. For example, in Kupiansk, east of Kharkiv, a solar power station was damaged by artillery fire. But even in these zones, the authorities are trying to provide the few remaining citizens, mostly elderly, with drinking water from tankers. The government and aid organizations also distribute food. Time and time again you see people taking home boxes with the UN World Food Program emblem on bicycles, wheelbarrows and even prams.

Most petrol stations at the front were destroyed or looted by the Russians before they retreated, for example in the southern port city of Kherson. In Konstantinovka in the Donbass, employees of a gas station secured the gas pumps with sandbags. The gas station store is still well stocked with goods, but there is a huge hole in the roof from a Russian missile, which has now been patched up. The explosion even left a small crater in the floor. Fortunately, the rocket landed in the middle of the night when all the personnel were home.

When the ground freezes

In all the accommodations I’ve stayed in the past three weeks, the rooms are quite overheated, sometimes as high as 24 degrees. Even if there are neighborhoods and regions where district heating or gas pipes are defective, the majority of the population living outside the front lines will not have to freeze. That could perhaps change if temperatures dip well below freezing in January, as predicted.

The mild winter so far has also had an impact on warfare. In most regions the ground is not yet frozen. The soldiers on both sides therefore fight with mud in their trenches. Heavy vehicles such as main battle tanks can usually only move on paved roads, which makes major offensives practically impossible. That could change when snow falls and the now muddy ground freezes. There is no doubt that both sides are planning their next moves: Russia is currently training an estimated 200,000 newly recruited soldiers, and the Ukrainians fear they could be used in another attack on the capital Kiev. Conversely, the Ukrainians are trying to revive their faltering counter-offensive to the east in the cities of Swatowe and Kreminna, which are still under Russian control.

With the promised delivery of light battle tanks from France and armored cars from the US and Germany, the mobility and firepower of the Ukrainian ground forces will increase significantly. The Ukrainians will certainly know how to use this in their next attacks. Old Soviet tanks supplied by Eastern European countries played a key role in the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive at Kharkov and northern Donbass in September. If the West eventually also made modern main battle tanks available, Russia would have no comparable equipment to counter them.

Stocks roll

The Russian Expeditionary Force continues to struggle with logistical problems and poor leadership. Time and time again, Russians at the front complain in videos that they don’t even have enough drinking water and food. On the other hand, everyone who visits Ukrainian positions, for example, sees piles of plastic bottles with mineral water again and again. The supply routes from Poland and Romania are wide open and the Russians never seriously tried to cut off these road and rail links. On the contrary, Romania and Ukraine have restored a rail link through the Carpathians that has not been used for many years and reopened it in November. Supplies – civilian and military – are flowing in unimpeded, the only sticking point being the political will in the West to provide Ukraine with what it needs to fend off the Russian onslaught.

All this also has consequences for the supply of the civilian population. If you wander through the Ukrainian supermarkets, you will come across a great selection that differs only slightly in quantity and quality from that in Switzerland, but is also much cheaper. The vast majority of food is produced in Ukraine itself, which means that the Ukrainian economy continues to produce despite power cuts and other problems. The country is simply too big for the Russians to shut down all industrial plants and infrastructure. This may be difficult for news consumers in the West to understand, as most media outlets focus primarily on the devastation wreaked by Russian drones and cruise missiles. However, it goes unnoticed that a large part of the country hardly notices this.

Many Ukrainians also believe that crime has fallen sharply as a result of the war and the associated, sometimes draconian, punishments. Even in the dark city parks of Kiev or Odessa, women can move without fear at night. In my four trips since February 24, I have come across a single drunken Ukrainian soldier. In the front areas, the sale of alcohol is prohibited, and soldiers caught drinking are not to be envied. A few foreign mercenaries who got drunk in uniform and armed in a bar in Kiev also had to experience this. They were summarily arrested by the Marechaussee and deported to Poland after a few days in prison.

In the long time I have been in the country now, I have never seen soldiers stealing or looting, or heard similar stories from Ukrainians. The prevailing discipline among the army is one of the reasons why the Russian invasion failed. (aargauerzeitung.ch)