France is sending AMX-10RC light armored vehicles to Ukraine, while the US and Germany are sending armored personnel carriers. It seems that the pleas of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) have finally been answered. The first delivery of Western mobile tanks is another important milestone in the increasing supply of the Ukrainian armed forces, experts at the Washington Post are sure.
Just a few weeks ago, such deliveries seemed impossible; the West was too afraid of Vladimir Putin’s (70) reactions. It seems as if the fear of an escalation in the West has disappeared.
There are the first signs of that, according to ETH military strategist Marcel Berni (34) on Blick. “The West seems increasingly to be abandoning its concerns about the escalation risk of heavy arms shipments.” There are two reasons for this: Ukrainian successes on the battlefield and increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
For the Ukrainian army, the armored vehicles mean one thing above all: greater effectiveness and the ability to withdraw and maintain weapon systems from the front. According to Berni, however, there is a catch: “Every new weapon system must also be delivered. In addition, there is a need for training and education for the military.”
Ukraine plans “hot” spring offensive
Kyrylo Budanov, 37, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said in an interview with “ABC News” that more attacks on Russian territory are likely to come – no later than spring. Then Ukraine will plan a “major attack”, in March, according to him, the fighting will be “the hottest”.
It is unclear what role Western arms supplies will play in this. Niklas Masuhr (29), strategy researcher at ETH Zurich, emphasizes: “To date, the US has refused to provide ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, which would make such attacks much easier for the Ukrainians – that is why Kiev demanded them for a long time without success. »
The fact is, however, that a Ukrainian offensive – compared to autumn or winter – tends to become more difficult, because: “Russia has built up defensive positions and still has large amounts of artillery.” That’s why armored vehicles from the west are even more important now than they were a few months ago.
Attacks work best in stealth
Attacks on Russian soil are nothing new. Russian targets were repeatedly attacked at the start of the war – helicopter attacks on a refinery in Belgorod, the burning Crimean bridge and the recent attacks on Russian airfields are just a few examples.
However, Ukraine has barely claimed responsibility for any of these attacks. There is a good reason for this, Berni explains: “Military operations, such as those currently being conducted in Ukraine, are particularly successful when conducted in secret. The cryptic messages from Kiev are intended to confuse the enemy and create uncertainty. in the Russian ranks.” It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian side will remain silent in the spring. However, Budanov’s words do not sound like that.