After parliamentary elections in November, Congress will meet for the first time on Tuesday in a new constellation (12 noon local time, 6 pm CET). The Republicans then take control of the House of Representatives – in the Senate, the second chamber of parliament, President Joe Biden’s Democrats continue to have a narrow majority. The start of the new legislature is overshadowed by a Republican power struggle for leadership in the House of Representatives.
The leader of the party, Kevin McCarthy, wants to be elected president of the chamber. The post, which has been occupied in recent years by Democrat Nancy Pelosi, is third in the U.S. government rankings behind the president and his vice president. However, several party members rebelled against McCarthy – and given a slim majority of Republicans, he had great difficulty getting enough votes in his own ranks for the election. The revolt against him could delay or even throw chaos into the usual procedure.
The problem
The Republican faction in the House of Representatives, like the party as a whole, is torn between right-wing supporters of ex-President Donald Trump and more moderate party members. Faced with a slim majority, McCarthy must unite the various wings behind him and win over even members from the margins of his faction. However, five Republicans have publicly announced that they will not vote for McCarthy. Others also showed resistance. But given the majority, McCarthy can hardly afford to disagree.
In recent weeks, he has therefore tried to appease internal critics with all kinds of concessions. Most recently, he even agreed to significantly lower the hurdles to a possible resignation of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, as reported by several US media, citing internal discussions in the parliamentary group. That could be used as a constant means of pressuring him – but even with this concession, McCarthy’s majority was not secured until the end.
The payment
In the congressional elections in early November, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate were up for grabs. Both chambers meet for the first time with new members on Tuesday. Biden’s Democrats had done better than expected in the election. A predicted wave of success for the Republicans failed to materialize. They failed to control the Senate and won only a narrow majority of 222 seats in the House of Representatives. The Democrats have 212 seats. One seat is still vacant after a member of parliament died shortly after the election. A maximum of 434 votes can therefore be awarded.
In the simplest scenario, a majority of 218 votes is required for the election of the president of the chamber – if all 434 newly elected MPs are present and vote for a candidate. If some of them abstain, the required majority would be correspondingly smaller.
The procedure
After a few formal steps, the election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives is the first important item on the agenda of the constituent meeting. Until there is clarity about the presidency, nothing works: the Chamber of Congress cannot start its work, it is not even possible for the new MPs to be sworn in. If McCarthy failed the first ballot and more ballots were needed, it would be a minor sensation.
Usually the choice is a formality. It has been a hundred years since a candidate for the House of Representatives vote failed to secure the required majority on the first ballot: in 1923, nine ballots were needed to elect a leader. At that time it took several days. Even McCarthy’s nail-biting advance stands out and weakens him, even as he eventually becomes successful in the vote.
The big picture
With the changed majority and their new clout in the House of Representatives, the Republicans can make things difficult for Biden in the future. They have already announced parliamentary inquiries into the president and other members of the government and can block legislation at will.
(SDA)