Heavy fighting has been raging for weeks around the town of Bakhmut in the Donbass region. Russian troops continue to shell the city and have launched a major offensive to capture the city. Ukrainian troops have so far successfully defended the city, which once had a population of 74,000.
Now it is likely that hostilities have reached their peak, the Institute for War Studies (ISW) reports. All signs would indicate that the so-called culmination point has now been reached.
From this point onwards, the Russian forces can no longer continue their full-scale assault on the city. Instead, the army of Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) should “take a defensive stance or take an operational pause”. According to the ISW experts, Russian forces are unlikely to win “operationally significant victories” in the region, even if they continue the heavy shelling.
Continuous high level visits
According to the ISW, the Russian attacks have not had a major impact on the Ukrainian defense. High-ranking officials can still visit Bachmut with virtually no restrictions. The ISW cites, among other things, the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) as evidence. He traveled to the embattled city shortly before Christmas.
Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov (36) has also appeared in recent days. So Budanov was only about 600 meters from the Russian front line.
In an interview with the BBC, the intelligence chief also confirmed that the situation at the front is frozen. “It is no longer possible, the situation is stuck,” he reveals.
According to Budanov, Russia is at a dead end and the army lacks opportunities to advance further. However, it is also not possible for Ukraine to recapture territories occupied by Russia. The last major reconquest was in November, when Ukraine captured the strategically important city of Kherson.
What role does Belarus play?
Above all, the Ukrainian troops have no resources. “We can’t beat them completely in all directions,” Budanov said. The head of the secret service therefore called for more weapons from the West. “We are very much looking forward to new arms shipments and the arrival of more advanced weapons.”
A few weeks ago, Ukraine warned that Russia could launch another major offensive in early 2023. A large-scale ground attack on the capital Kiev is also possible.
In recent days, there have also been growing signs that Belarus, an ally of Russia, could also become involved in the war. “At this point, however, we see no signs that an attack from Belarus is imminent,” said Budanov. The Belarusian population is not in favor of direct intervention in the war in Ukraine. Budanov: “President Alexander Lukashenko (68) is currently doing everything possible to prevent a disaster for his country.” (zis)