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The government in London and unionist politicians are outraged: the settlement agreed with the EU on Northern Ireland is harming consumers and the economy in that part of the country. But official data paints a different picture.

The special Brexit rules criticized by London strengthen the economy in the British province of Northern Ireland. This is suggested by trade data and economic models. However, consumers in the former civil war region should expect higher prices than in the theoretical case of the UK still being part of the EU.

The value of British sales to Northern Ireland in 2021 – so after the introduction of the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol – increased by 7 percent compared to the previous year, according to the Northern Ireland Statistics Office. Northern Ireland’s sales to the UK rose by 13 percent. Exports to the neighboring EU member state of Ireland and to the other EU countries increased even more. The statistics office emphasized that the effects of inflation were not included.

Northern Ireland remains a member of the EU Customs Union

Unlike the UK, Northern Ireland is a de facto member of the EU customs union and internal market even after Brexit. This arrangement is intended to prevent a hard border with Ireland and the re-ignition of old conflicts. However, a customs border was created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. There were trade barriers, some British companies stopped deliveries to Northern Ireland. The union’s predominantly Protestant supporters fear the protocol will promote the reunification of the part of the country with Ireland, something that Catholics in particular are demanding. The government in London is therefore threatening the EU with violating the agreement.

However, model calculations from the University of Sussex showed, contrary to British and Unionist politicians, that the Protocol actually boosts the Northern Ireland economy. Accordingly, production in the part of the country will increase by 2.2 percent – compared to the kingdom that remains in the EU.

Thanks to the protocol, producers will have good access to both the UK and the EU market, but also less competition from the UK due to the tariff limit. However, the tariff hurdles on British goods also caused consumer prices – again compared to staying in the EU – to rise by 4.3 percent. This reduces total economic prosperity by 2.4 percent. (aeg/sda/awp/dpa)