Russian air defenses managed to intercept a Ukrainian drone at the last minute on Monday that was heading for English airfield near the Russian city of Saratov. The drone failed to reach its destination, but the premature explosion killed three.
In early December, Russian sources reported three Ukrainian attacks on the Russian airfields of Diagilevo, Kursk and Engels. Soldiers were killed and long-range bombers damaged.
The Engels and Djagilevo airfields are each about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Russian border and about 1000 kilometers from the war front. The Ukrainians have not penetrated Russian territory with missiles since the beginning of the war.
Did the US help?
Military expert Yuri Knutov (64) believes in a Russian political talk show seen by “Spiegel” that the US used its reconnaissance satellites to detect gaps in the Russian air defense system. This information allowed Ukraine to plan the route for the drones.
Experts suspect that the Ukrainians are using converted Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance drones. These devices, which are about 14 meters long and loud, have a range of 1000 kilometers. They are believed to be upgraded with explosives and satellite navigation for offensive missions. Ukraine has not yet responded to the attacks.
“Ukraine has the right to defend itself”
Dominik Knill (64), former military observer and president of the Swiss Officers’ Society, says about the Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory: “Ukraine is in an interstate war with Russia and has the right to defend itself by blocking the attacker on its territory. fighting. and pushed back.” However, she must expect massive retaliation.
There is speculation that Ukraine could also use the US-promised Patriot anti-aircraft missiles for strikes against Russian targets on the ground. Knill warns: “The use of US Patriot anti-missiles against Russia, whether fired from Ukrainian territory or beyond, would be grounds for Russia to further escalate the war.”
It doesn’t matter if it was an “accident” or not. Knill zu Blick: “The United States must be aware of this responsibility and the consequences if it abandons the operational and dismissal sovereignty of the Ukrainian army command.”
Russians mock their own defense
If the Ukrainians continue to attack targets in Russia, Russia may be tempted to shoot down US spy and reconnaissance satellites over its territory, says the president of the Swiss Officers’ Society. Reason for the US to intervene in the war? “It would be very risky to base the alliance case on this, especially if it initially only concerns Elon Musk’s private Starlink satellites.”
Meanwhile, Russian air defense is a laughing stock in Russia. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), after shooting down a Ukrainian drone at English airfield near Saratov, a member of the Wagner group asked why the air defenses “miraculously prevented attacks just above the airfield.” He also pointed out that the Ukrainian drone could fly more than 500 kilometers over Russian territory to reach the airport.
Hardliner Igor Girkin, 52, a former Russian intelligence colonel, sarcastically congratulated Russian air defenses for activating them before the drone could reach the airfield. Other military bloggers have criticized the technical capabilities of Russia’s air defenses and expressed concern over the authorities’ inability to protect critical infrastructure.
Nuclear attack unlikely
It remains to be seen how far Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) would go in retaliation after threatening Ukraine with nuclear retaliation against Russia.
Russia expert Ulrich Schmid (57) from the University of St. Gallen does not believe in a nuclear attack. “With the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions in early October, Putin himself debunked the argument that the Ukrainians would cross a red line in attacks on Russian territory,” he told Blick.
He also considers a nuclear attack on Ukraine unlikely for two reasons: “First, the Russian public would be against such a blow, and second, Putin would lose China’s already shaky support.”