Crimea has had a turbulent history: it was declared a People’s Republic by the Tatars in 1917, then as an autonomous republic within the Soviet Union in 1921, and with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992 it became an autonomous republic within Ukraine. In 2014, the peninsula was illegally annexed by Russia.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought the Black Sea Peninsula back into focus – as a point of contention between the two warring factions. Ukraine and Russia make future negotiations dependent on the status of Crimea, both are not giving up, both are convinced that they can claim Crimea.
“Crimea is a very emotional place for Russia,” explains Russia expert Ulrich Schmid (56). “From a Russian perspective, Crimea is the cradle of Russian Orthodoxy and therefore of Russian culture,” explains Schmid. And: For many Russians, the peninsula has been a popular holiday destination for centuries. Since 2014, the city of Sevastopol has a federal significance, surpassed only by Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Ukraine is under constant threat
But the Ukraine is also very interested in the peninsula. “Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is a constant threat to Ukrainian security,” explained Schmid. According to the expert, it is also about the territorial claim to it: “According to international law, Crimea still belongs to Ukraine.”
It remains to be seen whether and to what extent Crimea will become part of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Crimea was excluded from the 2014 Minsk Protocols, when a ceasefire was agreed in Donbass. “That will probably also be the case in future negotiations,” says Schmid.
But even the people of Crimea do not agree on which country the peninsula belongs to. “In 1991, a majority of Crimea voted in an independence referendum for membership of the Ukrainian state,” Schmid explains. And further: “Crimea has an autonomous status in Ukraine which is enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution.” On the other hand, many retired Russian officers moved to Crimea after World War II. Their patriotic values are still widespread among their descendants.
The population does not agree
Since its annexation in 2014, Russia has made great efforts to make life in Crimea attractive. “The goal was to show the people of Crimea that life in Russia is better than in Ukraine,” says Schmid. The population is therefore divided: one part wants to be independent from Russia, the other part supports the improved infrastructure and wants to remain protected by the Kremlin.
“Many Ukrainians tend to accept the loss of Crimea,” said Dominik Knill, president of the Swiss Officers’ Society, of the mindset in Ukraine. But although the population does not agree, one thing is clear for Kiev: Crimea belongs to Ukraine. When it comes to the terms of peace, Zelenskiy says again and again: “The reconquest of all Ukraine, including Crimea, remains a war goal.”
Due to its importance to Russia, Crimea is well protected militarily. Strong defense lines have been rebuilt along the borders of the island in the recent past. But the Kremlin looks with concern at the heart of the Black Sea. According to British intelligence, drone attacks are no longer launched from Crimea, but from the southern Russian region of Krasnodar. London interprets this as a sign that Moscow may be vulnerable.
An offensive is coming – but not yet
And Knill also notices a change. “There is a high probability of an offensive by the Ukrainians in the direction of Crimea,” he said. “An expansion of strong defensive positions is the logical conclusion for the Russian army.”
But recapturing Crimea is a truly daunting task – for both sides. “Currently, the Ukrainian army does not have the military resources to recapture Crimea,” Knill said. There is a lack of personnel and weapons. “A Ukrainian advance to the south would disrupt or even interrupt supply lines,” Knill explained. And, of course, Russia would have to respond militarily to a Ukrainian attack on what it considers to be Russian territory – which is also rather difficult at the moment.
Ultimately, the peace negotiations around the table will decide the future of Crimea, Knill is also sure. “Crimea is increasingly becoming a medium of exchange.” Without a ceasefire around the peninsula, peace negotiations will hardly be possible.