Ukraine expects massive Russian attacks during the holiday season. Satellite images show increased Russian naval activity in the Black Sea in recent days. Observers report numerous Russian ships in the waters of Sevastopol, near the Crimean peninsula.
What are the Russians up to? In a first phase attack from the Black Sea, the areas around Zaporizhia, Kherson and Melitopol are likely to be the main targets. So says Dominik Knill (64), military observer and president of the Swiss Officers’ Society.
Knill tells Blick: “Russia will try to support its own troops with heavy weapons and destroy the Ukrainian supply lines, so that fewer Western weapon systems are used at the front and the advance of the Ukrainians is stopped.”
Ukrainians on the rise
Because the Russians are massively harassed by the Ukrainians in the conquered territories. Knill: “An advance from Zaporizhia via Melitopol to the Sea of Azov would seriously disrupt Russian overland supply lines to Crimea. In addition, the Russian troops west of Melitopol should expect encirclement.”
According to Knill, the Ukrainians are prepared for attacks from the water. “The modern Western ranged weapons, now stationed in Ukraine, can inflict serious losses on the floating Russian platforms,” he says.
Flagship already sunk
According to observers, four Kilo-class submarines are currently in the Black Sea en route to Ukraine. These can fire cruise missiles. At least one of these submarines is accompanied by a Russian speedboat and a helicopter gunship. These are responsible for protecting the Kilo submarines. Because: Ukraine has modern naval drones that explode when hit and can completely destroy an enemy submarine.
Already at the beginning of the war, the Ukrainians had succeeded in sinking the Russian flagship in the Black Sea, the guided missile cruiser Moskva. Since then, the Russians have scaled back their activities on the water. “The fact that the Russian Navy is re-entering the war shows that it wants to regain sovereignty over its waters after the Moscow River disaster,” says Knill.
New attacks on Kiev?
Ukraine also expects new attacks from the north, which could start in winter or spring at the latest. The Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zalushny, 49, recently told The Economist that he had no doubts that Moscow would try to take Kiev again. That could happen through a new invasion of Russia’s partner state Belarus.
However, it is uncertain whether Russia still has the strength for new attacks. Ukraine reports that the enemy has lost at least 100,000 soldiers. There is also a lack of material. According to the savvy military blog Oryx, the Russians lost at least 1,500 tanks and about 600 artillery and rocket guns.