In recent weeks, it has been especially quiet around the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. But now analysts and observers are concerned.
Satellite images show “significantly increased activity” by the Russian Navy in recent days, writes naval expert HI Sutton in his online blog.
On Thursday, for example, numerous Russian ships were in the waters of Sevastopol near the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. That’s unusual. In recent weeks, the warships of President Vladimir Putin (70) have largely remained within the port of Sevastopol.
Kilo submarines en route
There has been shipping traffic around Crimea in recent weeks, Sutton continues. “But we haven’t noticed such a big movement in weeks.”
According to Sutton’s evaluation, there are currently four Kilo-class submarines in the Black Sea. These are used, among other things, to launch cruise missiles towards Ukraine. At least one of these submarines was out of port on Thursday.
The submarine was accompanied by a Russian speedboat and a helicopter gunship. These are responsible for protecting the Kilo submarines. Because: Ukraine has modern naval drones that explode when hit and can completely destroy an enemy submarine.
Saber rattling or preparing for an attack?
It is currently unclear why the Russian Navy has increased its activities so drastically in recent days. According to experts, it could be a demonstration of power by Putin. Following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s (44) visit to Washington on Wednesday, the Kremlin responded with sharp words and blatant threats.
However, experts fear that the Kremlin’s words could also be followed by action. The Ukrainian secret service assumes that another large-scale missile attack by Russia on Ukraine can take place before Christmas. Missiles can also be fired from the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian army also expects that “in the worst case scenario as early as the end of January” another major offensive can be launched. In his blog, Sutton also does not rule out that the increased activities of the Russian navy could serve as preparation for a major attack.
Usually withdrawn
After the devastating setbacks and the sinking of the Russian «Moskva», Putin’s army has largely retreated to safe waters around the annexed Crimean peninsula in recent months.
On paper, Russia’s navy is significantly stronger than Ukraine’s, especially due to its nuclear submarines. But because the Ukrainian army is tactically smart, it has been able to largely repel Russia’s attacks so far.