On February 24, Moscow launched its relentless assault on its western neighbour. Turning events in Ukraine. But where exactly are we now, almost ten months after the outbreak of this war? The answers to 7 central questions.
Who currently has the upper hand in Ukraine?
The Ukrainians themselves: the liberation of the metropolis of Kherson in the south, the defense of the Donbass city of Bakhmut in the east and the increase in Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets (for example, in the Russian city of Belgorod or in the Russian-occupied Crimea far behind the front – city of Melitopol) indicate that Ukrainian self-confidence is still enormous. Nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian army. The US military seems to confirm this estimate, although it notes that the Ukrainian side lost about the same number of fighters.
Where is the hardest fighting?
Around the small town of Bakhmut in the Donbass region of Donetsk. “Bakhmut is the hot spot on the entire 1,300-kilometer war front,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his surprise visit on Tuesday. Before the war, more than 70,000 people lived in Bachmut, today the city resembles “a burning ruin”. From a strategic point of view, the city is not unimportant. If the Russians can capture them, the two major Ukrainian cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are in grave danger. In addition to the Russian army, Putin has recently deployed the ruthless fighters of the Wagner team, most of whom were recruited from prisons, to the region.
How bad is the humanitarian situation?
Very bad. After an interim total failure, the heating installations and water supply in the capital Kiev are working again. However, in many places, despite sub-zero temperatures, people live without functioning heating or running water. The daily drone and missile attacks on almost all major cities in Ukraine make repairs extremely difficult in many places. Olena Dergunova (54) from the Donbass city of Sloviansk tells Blick: “The whole thing seems like a reality show that the whole world is watching and who knows if we will survive or not.” In an interview with the British Economist, Valerii Saluschnyj (49), the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, warns of the great danger of further blackouts: “Then the wives and children of the soldiers start to freeze. What will that do to the fighters? we prepare our reservists for battle when we have no water, no light and no heat?”
How is Volodymyr Zelensky doing after ten months of continuous war?
The 44-year-old still seems incredibly calm and confident in his regular media appearances and in his daily video messages. He visits the troops at the front (most recently on Tuesdays in Bachmut), receives foreign visitors and gets up at 6am every morning to read about 40 pages of books before the day’s business begins. On his shelf is the book “Hitler and Stalin: The Tyrants of World War II” by the English historian Laurence Rees. In an interview with former American presenter David Letterman (75), Selenski said: “After the war, I just want to go back to the sea and have a beer.” The US government’s announcement on Wednesday that it would receive the Ukrainian president in Washington came as a surprise. It is Selenski’s first trip abroad since the outbreak of war – the fact that this is possible despite the Russian attack speaks volumes.
Is the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko now involved in the war?
That would be the greatest wish of Vladimir Putin (70). Intervention of the Belarusian army would open a new front in this war and bind limited Ukrainian forces in the north. Earlier this week, the Kremlin boss even visited Lukashenko (68) in Minsk to smear warlike honey around his mouth. But Lukashenko doesn’t seem to want that. The war experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also consider active intervention by Lukashenko in the war in Ukraine “extremely unlikely”. Moldovans are also concerned. The secret service of Ukraine’s western neighbor expects Russia to be able to launch an attack on Moldova in early 2023 and officially occupy the breakaway province of Transnistria.
Will there be peace talks soon?
Hardly likely. From the point of view of the two belligerents, peace negotiations only make sense when their military resources are exhausted. Russia still has hundreds of thousands of men to send to war. And last week, Ukraine received another $275 million in US military aid. The Russians had recently rejected an offer from the Americans to negotiate. However, the recent prisoner exchange between Moscow and Washington (basketball star Brittney Griner, who was captured in Russia, was released in exchange for arms dealer Viktor But, who was imprisoned in the US) shows that diplomatic talks between the West and Russia are progressing slowly. behind the scenes further.
How’s the war?
Australian ex-general Mick Ryan writes on Twitter, the coming weeks would be marked by a tense stalemate in Ukraine. Both sides are arming their troops and stockpiling material for the next major battle in 2023. In a recent interview with the “Economist”, Ukraine’s Supreme Commander Valeri Saluschni also hinted that this will come. Saluschni said: “The Russians are currently assembling a force of 200,000 new soldiers. I have no doubt they will try again to take Kiev.” According to the Ukrainian general, that could be as early as January.