Alexander Lukashenko (69) seemed thrilled when he hugged Vladimir Putin (70) at Minsk airport. The Kremlin boss came to Belarus on Monday. A special occasion.
Usually Lukashenko comes to Moscow. Putin was last in Belarus three years ago. But he got on the plane specifically to talk to his ally. But why now? Does Putin need help in the war in Ukraine? What’s behind this visit?
It could be the start of a new plan to include Belarus. Putin’s annexation scenario in Ukraine failed, now he is gradually trying to take over Belarus,” Ulrich Schmid (57), professor of Russian culture and society at the University of St. Gallen, told Blick.
Lukashenko’s political survival depends on Putin’s favor
Since 1996, there has been a state union between Belarus and Russia on paper. While Lukashenko initially thought that this would bring him to power, Putin is gradually forcing him to give up sovereignty. Lukashenko’s power has been greatly weakened, especially since the mass protests in his own country in 2020.
Schmid on Blick: “His political survival depends on Putin’s favor.” At the time, the head of the Kremlin sent a gang of thugs to Belarus to aid Lukashenko in the unrest.
Apparently, Lukashenko knows that too. “Russia can do without us, but we cannot do without them,” he admitted at the press conference after meeting Putin in Minsk. However, Schmid says that Putin’s authority has also been damaged by the uncertain course of the war in Ukraine. Lukashenko seems to be buying time and speculating on a post-Putin era.
That is why he has so far refused to support Russia in the war. Lukashenko has repeatedly assured that he does not intend to send troops to Ukraine. When Russia and Belarus announced the creation of a joint military unit in mid-October, he stressed that it should serve purely “defensive” purposes.
‘There is considerable pressure from the Kremlin’
Even before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Moscow held military exercises in Belarus, and at the beginning of the offensive, Putin’s troops even invaded the neighboring country from Belarusian territory. Kiev has since strengthened its defenses on its northern border with Belarus and Russia.
The Ukrainian government has recently expressed fears that a Russian offensive on Kyiv could come from Belarusian territory in the early months of 2023, after Belarus announced in October that it was entering into a joint military alliance with Russia. Thousands of Russian soldiers will be stationed in Belarus for this purpose.
Schmid does not believe that Lukashenko could suddenly change his mind. “It is very unlikely that Belarus will actively participate in the war. There is considerable pressure from the Kremlin. But the Russian war in Ukraine is highly unpopular with both the Belarusian people and the Belarusian army.” Putin also knows that he should not exaggerate if he does not want to lose Belarus after Ukraine.