Trump in polls behind DeSantis – why the ex-president still has chances Most of the loot from Berlin’s Green Vault has been secured

The United States only made it through the midterm elections in November and the world is already talking about the next presidential election. November 5, 2024 is the day – but the question already arises: who will run for the Republicans?

Several studies have recently been published in the United States against this background.

What about ex-President Donald Trump? What do the poll results mean and what does Kanye West have to do with it? Watson has listed the most important questions and answers.

What are the results of the polls?

There have been several polls recently. One of them appeared on Tuesday and was reported by The Guardian. In it, USA Today and Suffolk University asked participants about possible Republican presidential candidates for the 2024 election. Here, current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a whopping 23 point lead over ex-President Donald Trump. The poll surveyed Republican and Republican voters.

Trump insider speaks of “difficulties”

In addition, the Wall Street Journal published a poll on Wednesday that gave DeSantis a 14-point lead (52 percent to 38 percent) over Trump in a hypothetical primary campaign. In a poll by news channel CNN, 62 percent of Republicans said they want a candidate other than Trump in 2024.

The Guardian also reported that the medium had access to confidential messages. In it, a seasoned Trump insider allegedly wrote: “He IS in trouble.”

But that’s just one side. Other polls still see Trump ahead. For example, at the Morning Consult institute, Trump has an 18 percentage point lead over DeSantis (49 to 31 percent).

Who is Ron DeSantis anyway?

Ron DeSantis is the governor of the US state of Florida and a supporter of Trump’s MAGA movement. Trump is, as it were, his mentor. In the meantime, however, he is just as popular as his political role model.

In an earlier conversation with Watson, American expert Thomas Greven described DeSantis as a skilled culture warrior. Just like Trump himself, the man from Florida also understands how to use crises populist. His advantage over Trump: he is younger and he has less shit on his shoe.

More precisely, there is no scandal in his resume.

He was a top-notch baseball player, attended elite universities like Harvard and Yale, and even earned a Bronze Star after serving as an officer in the United States Navy. From Greven’s point of view, DeSantis is not only a potential successor to Trump – but also much more dangerous than the original.

greven said:

As governor of Florida, DeSantis has attracted attention with some questionable political decisions: That’s how the Don’t Say Gay law came from him. This prohibits discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in the classroom. He also introduced an abortion ban in Florida. The law is so strict that no exception is even made for rape or incest.

He is currently causing a stir with a campaign against corona vaccines.

Florida will, DeSantis writes on Twitter, hold the medical establishment to account.

Why is Trump losing support?

First of all, it is dangerous to think that Trump’s policies will lose support. This is by no means the case. Competitor Ron DeSantis is even considered one of Trump’s policy advocates.

Media headlines quoted the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, David Paleologos. He told USA Today, “More and more Republicans and conservative independents want Trumpism without Trump.”

Trump politics, but please no more Trump.

But why?

The reason could be found in Trump’s many scandals. And in the fact that he is losing support among the more moderate population, whom he previously managed to win with various election promises.

For example, a dinner with Kanye West was widely criticized. The rapper, who now calls himself Ye, recently said on a talk show: “I like Hitler”. He urges Jews to “let go” and forgive Hitler. Anti-Semitism has gradually become a trademark of the rapper.

“The Republican Party is now paying the price at the ballot box for missing out on every opportunity to decisively distance itself from Trump,” political scientist Thomas Greven said in an interview with Watson. Republicans would have put up with Trump’s antics before, but election defeats? The party could not cope with this in the long run.

Greven said Trump still has a lot of grassroots support, but it is also dwindling. The reason: Ron DeSantis. Similar policies – no scandals. So far, however, DeSantis has not run for president.

Why is it still looking good for Trump?

So Trump loses support. And the most famous competitor has already passed him. But that doesn’t mean the ex-president couldn’t run again as a Republican nominee.

But why?

First, there is the time factor: Those who have been looking at election polls for a long time will see that the tide can turn quickly.

An example is the values ​​for the so-called Tuesday question. Who would Americans vote for if today was Tuesday, November 8, 2022? The results can be displayed in a timeline. It falls on: The approval ratings for different parties can be damn erratic. The same goes for the candidates’ approval ratings. External circumstances, scandals, a nasty speech and much more can quickly affect the approval ratings within a party.

And the US presidential election isn’t until November 2024. The Republican preselection starts in January 2024.

Lots of competition, lots of waste

But there is another factor in the comparison between Trump and DeSantis: the number of competitors.

The large field could help Trump. In addition to DeSantis and the ex-president, many other top politicians are interested in the office of president.

None of them have Trump or DeSantis popularity ratings. However, if the opposition within the party cannot agree, the anti-Trump vote could be split. And the ex-president can continue to count on his fans. As long as his supporters continue to vote for him, it may ultimately win him the candidacy.