It has been almost three years since a new virus from the Chinese city of Wuhan changed the world. Today, the Covid-19 pandemic is still not over and scientists warn that we must prepare for further epidemics.
Will the pandemic be over soon?
“It’s not over yet,” the World Health Organization (WHO) stressed in early December. While 90 percent of the world’s population now has some immunity, “gaps in surveillance, testing, sequencing and vaccination could create ideal conditions for the emergence of a new variant of care that carries a higher mortality rate,” the WHO warned. General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (57).
New WHO chief scientist Jeremy Farrar (61) also expressed concern that the world is “wanting to move on from the pandemic too quickly”. It is the WHO that will announce the end of the pandemic. WHO chief Tedros said at a press conference on Wednesday that he hoped the global health emergency could be over by the end of 2023.
Experts expect a gradual transformation of Sars-CoV-2 into an endemic virus that will continue to circulate and regularly lead to outbreaks of the disease, just like flu or measles.
Can the coronavirus be eradicated?
The 2003 Sars epidemic, which killed nearly 800 people, was ended by isolation and quarantine measures. Smallpox was declared eradicated after a large-scale vaccination campaign by WHO in 1980, but that was the big exception.
“To eradicate a virus, the disease must be clinically visible, there must be no animal reservoir, but there must be a highly effective vaccine that protects against infection. Corona does not meet any of these requirements,” emphasizes microbiologist Philippe Sansonetti (73).
Some of the people who become infected with the coronavirus have no symptoms of the disease. And unlike smallpox, the virus can jump back and forth between humans and animals. Although vaccines are very effective against serious diseases, they offer less protection against infection and repeat injections remain necessary. “This virus is not going away,” WHO chief Tedros confirmed on Wednesday.
What are the biggest risks?
Genetic researcher Etienne Simon-Lorière of the Pasteur Institute believes that the virus is given too much freedom. Each time someone becomes reinfected, it can mutate into a more dangerous variant. “Even if we can safely believe that the virus is becoming more harmless, there is no reason to believe that,” he says.
How can we arm ourselves?
According to epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet (61), “a lot can happen at the beginning of an epidemic and then it has to happen”. Denmark had imposed a curfew very early in 2020 and was therefore able to contain the pandemic earlier. It is also necessary to have the capacity to develop rapid tests to quickly isolate those infected. “Unfortunately today we are still in the reaction phase, not the prevention phase,” says Fontanet.
What is the “One Health” approach?
About 60 to 70 percent of new infectious diseases are zoonoses, ie they are transmitted from animals to humans and vice versa. As humans colonize more areas, engage in factory farming, travel internationally and destroy ecosystems, animal habitats shrink and viruses are more likely to be transmitted.
At the beginning of the 2000s, the concept of ‘One Health’ emerged internationally. It assumes that the health of humans, animals and nature depend on and influence each other.
To ensure that the mistakes of the corona pandemic are not repeated, the WHO is pushing for a new international agreement to better prepare for and manage pandemics. Last week, the 194 WHO member states agreed to begin negotiating a draft global agreement from February. (AFP/jmh)