Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are rising. In the night of Monday, photos and videos of troop movements in the Serbian border area appeared on social media. Will the next powder keg explode in Eastern Europe?
What is the origin of the conflict?
German Balkan expert Konrad Clewing of the Leibniz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Studies summed it up in a nutshell: “Serbia denies the existence of the state of Kosovo.” Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but is still considered a breakaway territory by Belgrade to this day. Belgrade encourages the Serb minority in northern Kosovo in their efforts to defy Pristina’s authority.
The backdrop to the latest tensions were plans by the government in Pristina to hold local elections in Serb-majority areas on December 18. The main Serbian party immediately announced its boycott, and as election authorities were about to start preparations earlier this week, shootings and explosions broke out.
What do the heads of government say?
The prime ministers of the two sides in the conflict fire sharply at the other side, if only verbally.
Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti chose clear words: “The President and Prime Minister of Serbia threatened military aggression and called on the Serbian army to return to our territory. We are not seeking conflict, but dialogue and peace. But let me be clear: the Republic of Kosovo will defend itself – with all its strength and determination.”
How do Switzerland and the EU react?
Until now, like the EU, the focus has been on words. Switzerland is concerned about the rising tensions and the erecting of barricades, the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) reported on Twitter on Monday. Both sides have been urged to take immediate action to de-escalate the situation.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell strongly condemned the attacks. All parties must avoid any “escalation” and ensure peace, Borrell explained on Twitter. He called on Kosovo Serbs to lift the blockades “immediately”.
“The West is not resolute enough against Serbia,” criticizes Eastern Europe expert Clewing. This is because some European states would not recognize Kosovo’s independence either. European countries that have not yet recognized Kosovo are Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Spain.
How likely is a further escalation to war?
“I think an invasion is unlikely,” explains Clewing. “Because then Serbia would have to mess with NATO-led KFOR.” KFOR is the name given to the multinational peacekeeping force established after the end of the Kosovo War and led by NATO.
Instead, according to Clewing, Serbia will continue the conflict mainly at the secret service level. In the tensions of the past few days, he sees at most a threatening gesture from Serbia.
What does the escalation mean for the Swiss soldiers stationed in Kosovo?
Currently 195 Swiss men and women are deployed in the Kosovo Force (KFOR) Swisscoy.
When asked by Blick, the Swissint Competence Center in Stans NW said tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are not currently bringing about changes for Swiss soldiers on the ground.
How could the conflict be defused?
Part openly, partly hidden in northern Kosovo, Serbia could further undermine its neighbour’s independence. Conversely, it will continue to be difficult for Kosovo to build its institutions against the will of the people of Serb origin. Both would only exacerbate the situation.
Konrad Clewing therefore advocates a European solution. “The Eulex police and KFOR, in consultation with the government in Pristina, must largely assume their responsibilities in the conflict area.”