Zero Covid policy – that has been the motto in China for almost three years. It’s over now. After the national protests against the measures, the cabinet is finally relaxing – on ten points. A direct success of the protests that have rocked China in recent weeks?
Yes, experts agree. Sabrina Habich-Sobiegalla (39), China expert at the Freie Universität Berlin: “This can be seen as a direct response to the protests – even though the central government of course does not admit it.” China relies on science when it comes to easing restrictions.
Still, it was a personal defeat for ruler Xi Jinping (69), says Brian Carlson (44) of the Center for Security Studies. “Xi justified China’s approach to the virus with superiority over Western methods – and now it’s clear: the authoritarian fight against the coronavirus has failed,” he told Blick. Given the protests, Carlson believes Xi simply can no longer afford the zero-Covid policy.
Ralph Weber (48), China expert at the University of Basel, sees it differently: “There is no failure for the Chinese party state. You revisit history and redefine failure into success.” Viewed from abroad, however, it is almost impossible to come to any other conclusion than to read the easing as an insight.
Because: “Even the economic damage of this policy, which meant a strong international isolation, was difficult to control in the long term.” The sensitivities of the Chinese people play a role in this. “But not as a counterbalance to politics, but as a workforce that must be content and intact enough to play its role for the regime in the economy,” Weber said.
It remains unlikely that the easing will mean a shift in Chinese politics towards democracy. Weber: “There is little reason for optimism and there can be no question of democracy.” For Habich-Sobiegalla, too, the protests were “a momentary moment of rebellion by the Chinese, who were driven to the brink of despair for a long time by draconian lockdowns and the sometimes insane implementation of the measures.”
Is China launching an attack on Taiwan?
The fact is: there are rumors in China. To distract from trouble at home, politicians like to resort to foreign policy crises, explains Carlson. That is exactly what Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (68) now fears: “We are concerned that the Chinese government is accusing Taiwan of being the cause of the unrest in China.” According to Carlson, it could be tempting for Xi to rally the people behind him with nationalistic measures, such as an attack on Taiwan.
The expert sees no sign of an imminent attack on Taiwan, but notes that US officials have expressed growing concern that it could happen sometime this decade. A step that, according to Weber, would be internationally punished. “An attack on Taiwan is a difficult undertaking and would trigger a global crisis for which China is likely ill-equipped.” The warning should still be taken seriously.