The Power of Latinos in the US Election 2024 Baguette now Unesco Intangible Cultural Heritage

A pair of nostalgic-looking carousel horses stand in the Christown Spectrum Shopping Mall in northern Phoenix, recalling a once-given promise of noble shopping pleasure. Today, the big brands have left, stores are empty, a Walmart and a cheap furniture store occupy the largest areas.

In between are small shops and restaurants, most of them family-run by Latinos, who now make up the majority of the population in the US state of Arizona. People referred to as Latinos in the US are the fastest growing demographic. In 2020, more than 62 million Hispanic citizens lived in the United States, almost a quarter more than a decade ago. If you want to win the presidential election in 2024, you need your vote.

Delia Vargos, her dyed blonde hair almost in a ponytail, her glasses unobtrusive, emerges from her kitchen and sits down at one of the few tables in her restaurant. It’s in one of the back corners of the mall, it’s still empty in the morning, her only employee is preparing the lunch case. A quesadilla costs $11.99. Throughout the year, Vargos, who has been running the restaurant for five years, has not raised prices.

But now she thinks about it. “I have to spend about 20 percent more on everything,” she says. She doesn’t want to make the quesadilla more expensive than 50 cents. Neither the workers who come for lunch nor the families on weekends could afford it otherwise. Vargos fights to keep her business afloat.

For the 46-year-old, the economy is the deciding factor. Which party does better will get its vote in the future. She is not tied to the Democrats, she says in English, in which she sometimes still searches for words. Vargos did not vote in this year’s midterm elections. She has moved and failed to communicate her new address to the electoral authorities in time.

She would have voted for the Democrats in Arizona “because the Republicans here are too extreme”. In the last presidential election, she voted for Joe Biden, and she’s not exactly happy with him. Even though she knows that he is not solely responsible for the current difficult economic situation.

Ron DeSantis shows how it’s done

The midterms have shown that something is changing, one political certainty is no longer guaranteed: that Latinos in the country vote Democratic. President Biden’s party has always been able to rely on that. The 2020 presidential election has proven that things have become more complicated. According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center, Donald Trump was able to increase his share of Latino votes from 28 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2020. In his speech announcing his renewed candidacy for president, Trump explicitly addressed people of color who should join his movement.

The mid-term elections in early November turned out differently than expected in many areas. The Republican victory failed to materialize. The Democrats have retained control of the Senate. The majority in the House of Representatives was lost, but the losses in the House of Representatives are historically small. The most extreme of the extreme Trump candidates failed to prevail.

And yet a majority of the country’s Latinos voted Democratic, contrary to what the conservatives had hoped. But a closer look at the numbers shows that this majority should not reassure the Democrats. Republican star Ron DeSantis won his re-election as Florida governor. Also because 57 percent of Spanish voters voted for him.

A comparison of previous election figures from the AP news agency shows that support for Democrats in this constituency has steadily declined, from 64 percent four years ago to 56 percent now. At the same time, more Latinos are voting conservative, their share among Republicans rising from 33 percent in 2018 to 40 percent. The post-election surveys of the major TV channels of the last elections also confirm this trend.

The Democrats’ share of the vote fell from 69 percent in 2018 to 65 percent in 2020 and 60 percent in 2022, while the Republicans’ share rose from 29 percent in 2018 to 39 percent four years later.

Delia Vargos was born in California, but her parents moved back to Mexico soon after, where they still live. Vargos came back at 20 looking for better chances, more chances. Opportunities led her to a job at a fast food chain in California. She voted Republican in the progressive state. Vargos came to Phoenix because rents were cheaper and there were more jobs.

That has now changed, Phoenix is ​​booming, everything has become expensive. The restaurant belonged to Vargo’s life partner, she has been running it alone since he died a year ago. She has three children, the eldest two help on weekends, the eldest daughter is currently training to be a cook. Her children’s education and the economy are what Vargos is concerned about. If a Republican candidate has a better idea than the Democrats in the next presidential election, Vargos will vote conservative, she says.

“There is a home for Latinos in both parties”

“A third of Arizona’s Latinos don’t belong to any party,” said Carolina Rodriguez-Greer of the national organization Mi Familia Vota, which works to increase Latino participation in politics. Before midterms, the volunteers knocked on more than 200,000 doors in Arizona to talk to Hispanic citizens about the election.

Rodriguez-Greer’s conclusion is sober: “Democrats and Republicans still have a lot to do.” Economy, education, security were the topics of these elections, and political issues were decisive for many Latinos.

But both parties are too lazy when it comes to the needs of the Spanish electorate, says Rodriguez-Greer. According to the organization, 38,000 young Latinos are eligible to vote each year in Arizona alone. Where they stand politically is open. “There’s a home for Latinos in both parties. We’re not a monolith as a group,” said Rodriguez-Greer, whose family is from Mexico.

The diversity of the community is also reflected in the Hispanic candidates who were successful in the midterms. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, star of the progressive left, has easily defended her seat in the New York House of Representatives. In Florida, where DeSantis has shifted the political image to the right, both Mexican-American Anna Paulina Luna, a veteran of the Republican US Air Force, and 25-year-old Afro-Latino Maxwell Frost have been elected Democrats. In Texas, near the border with Mexico, Monica De LaCruz, as a conservative Latina, has won a somewhat reformed neighborhood that has always been dominated by Democrats.

Orlando Sanchez wants to make sure the pendulum continues to swing in the conservative direction going forward. And stay there. The 65-year-old Cuban founded the Texas Latino Conservatives, a political movement that supports conservative Latinos. He attributes the change in Spanish voting mainly to Democrats’ mistakes. “They drove out a lot of Latinos with their progressive political message,” said Sanchez, who was himself a longtime regional politician in Houston.

Too much welfare state, too many identity issues, too much criticism of the security authorities, all of this hurt the Democrats. “Latinos don’t want handouts, we want to work, make something of ourselves,” says the 65-year-old. The Democrats have failed the working class. And for many Latinos, family values ​​would also be significantly more conservative than what liberal America represents. Despite all the generalizations, Sanchez repeatedly emphasizes that the Spanish electorate is diverse and that one strategy does not work for everyone. Which does not make predictions about future voting behavior any easier. But it creates opportunities for Republicans.

But for too long, the party hasn’t even considered Latinos as potential voters, Sanchez says. And then leaned too much on Donald Trump’s extreme messages. Immigration is an important issue for many Latinos, “but not with such toxic messages,” Sanchez says. Even the lie about the stolen elections will not appeal to this electorate. Values, that’s what Republicans should focus on again.

Ron DeSantis’ success with Hispanic voters supports this claim. DeSantis is tough on the matter, but looks more compliant. With his wife and three small children, he exemplifies the perfect heteronormative family picture, pursues an extremely values-conservative Florida policy and, with his constant reiteration that he stands for a “free Florida,” promises everyone the chance to make something of themselves. “That’s the beauty of America: opportunity,” agrees Orlando Sanchez.

As Delia Vargos contemplates her future at her restaurant in Phoenix, she dreams of opening her own restaurant for her daughter. She would like to build this together with her, in addition to her own business. The fact that she can currently keep her restaurant open is also due to an agreement with her landlord.

The rental price depends on your turnover. They always talk about politics in the family, says Vargos. Her children represent more liberal values ​​and the 22-year-old daughter voted for the Democrats. Delia Vargos will update her voter registration so she doesn’t miss another election. And then both parties can fight for their vote.

This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.