The lower the temperatures, the more important the equipment becomes for the soldiers at the front. It needs more of everything: more clothes, more food, more spare parts, more fuel. In recent weeks, there have been repeated reports that the Russian military is struggling to provide its troops with basic necessities. Russian soldiers would even have to stock up on helmets, body armor and bandages at their own expense. Ukrainian troops, on the other hand, are relatively well equipped, they say.
As history shows, in winter the defender has a strategic advantage: Hitler’s Wehrmacht attack on Russia, for example, failed in December 1941, not least because of the cold. According to experts, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) and his troops are therefore facing difficult months. For example, army and Ukraine expert Thomas C. Theiner expects 100,000 dead Russian soldiers, he writes on Twitter.
Bad logistics, frozen floors
Theiner gives seven reasons why Putin’s troops will be unlucky in the winter:
- Lack of winter clothing: The Russian government is not equipping its soldiers with enough equipment against the coming cold. Videos are circulating on the internet in which men who are called up for military service display their equipment. They should therefore go into battle with paintball masks and unlined rubber boots. According to Theiner, the inadequate equipment will mean death from hypothermia for many soldiers.
- Bad logistics: Russian soldiers will freeze to death at this point too. Because in the front there is a lack of hot food, tea, heating material and sleeping bags.
- No shelters and trenches: At night the temperature in Ukraine can drop well below zero. The Russian soldiers sometimes have to spend the night outside. The lowest point of winter temperatures is not reached until January.
- Frozen ground: If the temperature drops below freezing, no new trenches and shelters can be dug. The Russian troops then have to spend the night on the cold ground. Here too the result: Many will probably die of hypothermia.
- Fires are risky: when the Russian soldiers light a fire to fight the cold, they turn themselves in at the knives of the Ukrainian army. The smoke could give away their location. Drone strikes and artillery fire would result.
- Artillery is more effective on frozen ground: shells don’t dig into the ground before exploding. Therefore, more shrapnel will fly through the air; Artillery fire is therefore potentially more lethal.
- No protection against artillery fire: the frozen ground prevents trenches from being dug.
“Putin knows that and absolutely wants to end the war by spring,” Theiner continues. Winter will help Ukraine to liberate large areas.
«Rasputitsa» makes it difficult to move forward
As the “NZZ” writes, the phenomenon of the so-called “Rasputiza” could hinder the Ukrainian advance, at least in the south of the Kherson region, where temperatures are relatively mild. “Rasputiza” can be translated as “mud time”. This is a stage where the soil has softened. Moving forward with tanks and heavy military equipment is made considerably more difficult.
Carlo Masala, political scientist at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, to the “NZZ”: “The cold is a smaller problem than the mud.” Military vehicles must use paved trails during mud season. On the roads, however, the vehicles are more visible, their routes are more predictable and therefore easier targets for enemy attacks. This circumstance should make it easier for Russian troops to dig into the occupied territories.
According to meteorologists, a warmer winter is expected. However, the associated model calculations are subject to fairly large uncertainties. (no)