The restoration of territorial integrity remains a non-negotiable priority for Ukraine when it comes to peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) made it clear in his speech last Thursday that the reconquest of the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea, remains a war goal. Is the peninsula the next destination after the liberation of Kherson?
“An attack on Crimea would be an absolute game changer,” Ulrich Schmid (56), professor of Russian culture and society at the University of St. Gallen, told Blick. Instead of winning land, Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70) would actually lose. To conquer Crimea, however, the Ukrainians would have to pay a high price. “Russia had enough time to arm Crimea,” Schmid continued.
An attack on the peninsula would represent a new level of escalation. “Moscow will do everything it can to defend the peninsula,” Marcel Berni, 34, a strategy expert at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich, told Blick. Much of the population on the peninsula still sympathizes with Russia. When Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, 95 percent voted in an illegal referendum to join the Russian Federation.
Fortifications, defensive positions and trenches
Russia’s attachment to Crimea is also due to its central importance in the war. It was only thanks to Crimea that Russian troops were able to take Kherson in the first weeks of the war, Berni explains. Should Ukraine succeed in retaking the country, the logistical supply of Russian troops in the war would become even more difficult.
Moreover, hardly any other place is as symbolic of Russia as Crimea. After the Second World War, the Yalta Conference took place there, where the future world order was negotiated. For Russian Orthodoxy, according to Putin, Crimea is “as sacred as the Temple Mount to those who profess Judaism or Islam”. Russia is ready to defend this “sacred land” by any means necessary, “that’s why Russian troops are currently feverishly building fortifications, defensive positions and trenches,” says Berni.
Putin cannot afford to lose under any circumstances. “For Russia, an offensive in Crimea means that Ukraine is attacking Russian territory,” Schmid explained. He currently considers it unlikely that Ukraine is planning an offensive. “Zelensky puts the maximum demand in the room, but he himself knows that an offensive is unrealistic at the moment.”
“To attack the island head-on would be a great risk”
If Ukraine actually sent troops to Crimea, they would be missing from other places where they are needed. And the resistance of the Russians should be enormous. The question is whether the West would support Ukraine in an attack on Crimea.
Berni zu Blick: “Such an attack poses not only a military, but also a diplomatic risk. It could lead to division among Western supporters, who are central to Ukraine.”
Strategically, a recapture is not exactly easy anyway and must be well planned. “To attack the island head-on would be a great risk,” says the ETH military expert. As far as he is concerned, a victory is not completely out of the question. “It would require surprising military maneuvers involving land forces, naval landings and airstrikes on the ground,” he says.
Reconquering Crimea is currently still difficult. But: the situation seems to be improving in favor of Ukraine. According to Russia expert Schmid, geopolitical pressure on Putin is increasing. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (68) called on the Kremlin chief in September to withdraw from occupied territories in Ukraine, including Crimea. So far, the West has supported Ukraine. And if Putin’s forces are pushed back further, Ukraine may eventually be able to liberate Crimea.