Since the withdrawal from the city of Kherson, Russian troops have been working to consolidate their defensive positions on the other side of the Dnieper. The army apparently expects that the Ukrainians will eventually succeed in crossing the river.
However, military experts doubt whether these defense lines can actually withstand a possible Ukrainian counterattack. The think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in its report on Sunday: “Russian positions are optimized for defense in case Ukraine wants to advance by road. But the Ukrainian armed forces have already shown that they can do it across the country.”
Roadblocks instead of defense lines
Here could be the problem. As satellite images show, the Russians set up their positions directly on the roads and built the trenches perpendicular to them. “Thus, they are more elaborate roadblocks than parts of cohesive lines of defense spanning several basic communication lines and fields,” the ISW military experts continue to write in their report.
The flanks on the fields therefore remain open. According to the ISW, they are difficult to defend in this way. Even the mounted anti-tank obstacles wouldn’t reach far enough. If the Ukrainians rolled across the fields, they could encircle the enemy positions.
Defense weak at Kinburn
Complete encirclement would even threaten if the Ukrainians managed to cross the Dnieper at Nowa Kakhovka and at the same time launch an offensive across the Kinburn Peninsula to the west. That the Russians regard an attack as a real threat at this point supports the structure of the defense lines. The arrangement suggests that Russian troops do not expect to hold their positions on the Spit, a narrow strip of sand.
If the Ukrainians actually launched a major attack in the coming weeks, they would likely run into poorly defended lines. Because the Russian generals send inexperienced mobilized people to the front row to serve as “cannon fodder”. It would take considerably more time for them to be properly trained and thus helpful. Time that the Ukrainians could use for themselves in retaking Kherson Oblast.
Endless steppe, without sufficient cover
The region is so important to Vladimir Putin (70) because it ensures access to the Crimean peninsula. Crimea has been under Russian control since its annexation in 2014.
However, the question is whether the Ukrainians will dare to cross a river in the near future. Even if they could cross the river, they would face the same supply problems as the Russians had before in Kherson. Last but not least, an almost endless steppe stretches there – without sufficient cover. Added to this is the fear of mines or a Russian counter-attack, which will also slow down the Ukrainian advance. (Man)