On February 28, barely four days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky (44) sent a delegation to Gomel, Belarus, to negotiate with Russia. Meetings were held again and again in March and negotiations continued in April. Then the Russian atrocities in Bucha and Irpin became public – and the negotiations were off the table.
They became outwardly impossible when Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) annexed the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv on September 30. Political and Eastern Europe expert Andreas Umland (55) thinks that this will remain the case for the time being, he explains to Blick. “Demands for negotiations are naive.” The two warring parties are currently not reaching a green branch.
‘It’s not about serious negotiations’
Eastern Europe expert Alexander Dubowy (39) emphasizes in an interview with Blick that Russia has repeatedly shown itself willing to hold talks. “Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate – but how?” he wonders. Above all, there is one intention behind the Russian offers: “It is not about serious negotiations, but about a military breathing space.”
In early November, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on the international community to force Russia into genuine peace talks. The condition is that Russia withdraws from the occupied Ukrainian territories, pays for the war damage and that war crimes are prosecuted.
With winter approaching, the Russian army severely decimated and a kind of “winter break” expected, more and more Western experts are actually talking about an opportunity for peace negotiations. Despite all the signs, Dubowy does not find this reasoning entirely absurd. “We are slowly moving towards a stalemate, and so a negotiation window is opening. We shouldn’t be surprised if talks resume in the coming weeks.”
What are the warring parties negotiating about?
It’s hard to say what the two warring sides would be talking about. Ukraine’s and Russia’s demands are in stark contrast to each other. “First of all, negotiations for a partial withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine would be possible; for example about the actual course of the border before the outbreak of the war,’ says Dubowy. However, an immediate solution is unlikely. “Peace is still a long way off. That is why supporting Ukraine remains central.”
Political and Eastern Europe expert Umland also says that negotiations would only benefit Russia. “Russian leadership engages in aggression because it leads to victories, which many Russians love. Victories in Moldova, Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Syria and Donbass did not satisfy Russia. They have fueled the hunger for more victories. Another victory for Russia will not bring peace, but will only buy time to prepare for further victories.”