Despair Putin grows Merkel justifies Russia policy: “For Putin, only power counts”

He fought in Ukraine, but now he must be executed by firing squad. According to the human rights organization “Gulagu” in Russia, Viktor Sevalnev was serving a four-year prison sentence for bodily harm and then apparently volunteered for the front in Ukraine.

After being assigned to a unit of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic with other prisoners and subsequently wounded several times during fighting in the Donbass, he allegedly fled to the front with his unit, according to “Gulagu”. The wife of the 43-year-old then reported to the human rights organization.

Her husband is said to have been picked up from a hospital by the Russian army. Sevalnew now faces a death sentence by being shot.

It is difficult to verify whether the story of the Russian prisoner is really authentic. Both sides use disinformation as a major weapon in the war. One thing is certain: such reports from the Donbass are not isolated cases. Intercepted calls and reports from Russian soldiers are increasing, which suggest one thing above all: the Russian army has to pay a lot of blood to keep the front in eastern Ukraine.

Putin’s war against the Ukrainian people

But does that make a Russian withdrawal or even Russian defeat more likely? So far this is wishful thinking in the Western alliance, but so far the Kremlin and especially Russian President Vladimir Putin have not waved goodbye to their war goals. On the contrary, his tactics seem aimed at breaking the perseverance of Ukraine and its Western supporters.

Due to the current military inferiority of the Russian army, Putin is allowing Ukraine’s infrastructure to be shelled. Russia fired about 70 missiles at Ukraine on Wednesday. According to the air force, Ukraine intercepted 51 missiles and five drones. But the remaining missiles killed ten people and again caused serious damage to the power grid.

The country’s nuclear power plants were shut down and most thermal and hydropower plants shut down, the energy ministry said. Large-scale blackouts occurred. Ukraine is currently experiencing dark and cold nights.

However, Putin’s war crimes are seen as acts of desperation. “The occupiers are doing everything they can to make people suffer so that we don’t even feel or see each other,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening video address. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) criticized Putin’s ruthless actions on Wednesday. “A war he can no longer win on the battlefield, that much seems clear,” said the chancellor.

Support for Ukraine stronger than the Kremlin thought

Ukraine is currently experiencing the war of attrition that many military experts feared in the early summer. The front lines change only minimally, both sides suffer heavy losses. The result: in the end, the side that can collect more resources is likely to win the war.

And that’s where things look bleak for Putin. Ukraine continues to be backed by a largely united Western Front. The US alone provided another $400 million in military aid on Wednesday. Western support is vital to Kiev’s survival and, to the chagrin of the Kremlin chief, this front doesn’t seem to be really crumbling so far.

With the missile terror against Ukraine, Russia is mainly aiming for Western solidarity. In the face of the suffering of the civilian population and an imminent new wave of refugees to Europe, Washington, Berlin and Paris should convince the Ukrainian leadership to make concessions.

But this plan doesn’t work. Putin, who criminally underestimated Ukraine’s military strength, is making the same mistake again: he underestimates the defense capacity of the Ukrainian civilian population and the resilience of Western societies. The Kremlin chief most likely hoped for uprisings in Ukraine because of the blackouts, massive protests in Europe over energy prices and a reward for US President Joe Biden in the US midterm elections.

But none of that happened. Putin seems to have miscalculated again.

Putin’s terror strategy is in jeopardy

Moreover, the psychological component is currently on the side of Ukraine. In the autumn she managed to launch a successful counter-offensive in the northeast and in the south. It forced Russia to withdraw from the strategically important city of Kherson. For months Russian troops have been on the defensive, accompanied by constant reports of failures and setbacks.

In this war, perseverance could be the deciding factor. The people of Ukraine believe in their victory, they are on the offensive and motivated to defend their country. They have developed resilience and there is therefore a good chance that even those who are already used to harsh winters will survive this cold period – without power if necessary.

On the other hand, war-weariness in Russia could become a growing problem for Putin. At least 85,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, according to the US Department of Defense. Although the losses on the Ukrainian side are likely to be much greater, the defenders now have many volunteers who have been trained in recent months to appeal.

The Russian army is also likely to have material problems. No one really knows how much equipment and weapons Russia still has in its arsenal. However, according to experts, the battlefield shows that Russian troops lack microchips and semiconductors for modern guided missiles. Ukraine believes that Russia has already fired more than 87 percent of its Iskander missiles and will now have to resort to remanufactured S-300 missiles. The US, on the other hand, sees “significant bottlenecks” in Russian artillery munitions.

This means that material shortages could jeopardize Putin’s terror strategy if Russia does not receive supplies from Iran or North Korea. Tehran has promised missile deliveries.

What’s next?

In any case, no major decisions on the battlefield are to be expected in winter. Russia moved many of Kherson’s troops to the Donbass. So far, however, Russian offensives there have been largely successfully repelled by Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army now faces the Dnipro in the south, a major natural obstacle to the continuation of the counter-offensive.

Expect fierce artillery battles with limited use of tanks as they sink off-road in the Ukrainian mud at this time of year. From a military point of view, the options are therefore more limited until spring.

The battle for endurance could only now really begin. The American think tank Institute for the Study of War expects the Kremlin to organize a false flag operation in the event of a Ukrainian attack on southern Russia. According to the analysis, Putin’s goal could be to boost war morale in Russia by pretending to have been attacked and swearing to defend the country. But so far there are no signs of that.

In any case, the Russian president must mediate between war-weary and nationalist forces in his country. A tightrope walk.

(t online)