9 months after the Russian attack: The Winter War could decide Scottish independence: Important decision in London

If we as observers and media consumers have learned one thing after nine months of war in Ukraine, it is this: don’t trust anyone who poses as a military expert and explains the situation without ever being in Ukraine. Especially at the beginning of the invasion, it was all too clear that many media outlets failed to recognize important developments. This applies not only to the actual media reports, but also to many of the “experts” quoted there.

In the early March “NZZ am Sonntag” the headline read: “Ukraine being crushed”. It was one thing that most observers were so miscalculated with their predictions at the start of the war. It had a more serious effect when the incorrect predictions were repeated in the second phase of the war, trench warfare and artillery warfare in the Donbass.

After the disastrous battle of Kiev for Russia, Putin’s army had to withdraw from the entire northern part of Ukraine in early April. This defeat was sold as a “regrouping” in order to hit the front in the Donbass all the harder with the withdrawn units. The defeat was embarrassing because at the time many of the drafted Ukrainian recruits and volunteers were still armed with shotguns and shotguns.

The second phase of the war was marked by artillery duels in the Donbass. After the “regrouping” in May and June, the Russian military leadership relied on the one great strength it believed it had: numerical superiority in artillery. The Ukrainian positions were fired on almost non-stop, often with several thousand shells and rockets per day.

What was not thought of: Russia’s ammunition supplies are also limited, and today Russians – like Ukraine and their allies – are desperately searching the world for the remnants of artillery ammunition from the days of the old Warsaw Pact.

Western weapons made the difference

However, Russian artillery fire was often relatively inaccurate. That became clear when Ukraine received the first Himars missile launchers from the US in June. Their GPS-guided munitions hit command posts, war material depots and key bridges with razor-sharp accuracy at a distance of up to 70 kilometers. After their tanks had also been shot down in rows in the Battle of Kiev, the Russians now increasingly tried to advance with infantry attacks.

The Ukrainians joined in this game, fighting in every village, in every position until they were surrounded, then retreated. Their goal was to kill as many Russians as possible and destroy as much war material as possible without exposing their own troops to destruction. They gradually fell back to prepared defensive positions. They did this until the Russians ran out of breath. Many Western observers misinterpreted these retreat maneuvers as imminent defeat.

Putin throws ex-prisoners into battle

But even when the Ukrainians had to give up the important industrial city of Sievjerodonetsk, they managed to save their troops across the Donetsk River. In early July, the Russian advance came to a halt near Lysichansk. Since then, Putin’s army has attempted to capture some relatively insignificant towns in the Donbass, with freshly mobilized soldiers and thousands of ex-convicts thrown into battle in human waves.

Meanwhile, thanks to the Himars missiles and many Western artillery systems firing NATO ammunition instead of old Soviet shells, the Ukrainians destroyed Russian logistics bases and transport hubs far behind the front lines.

This paved the way for two major counter-offensives: the third phase of the war. With fanfare, Kiev announced a major attack in the south, prompting Russia to move its troops to the southern port city of Kherson. The first counter-attack came as a surprise in September in the east near Kharkiv, where Russian positions were scarcely manned.

Ukraine’s next counter-offensive

Putin’s army fled, narrowly escaping the impending siege of Lyman. In October, the Ukrainians launched another counter-offensive in the south. The Russians responded with a large-scale withdrawal from Kherson. Meanwhile, across the country, Ukraine has reversed more than half of Russia’s territorial gains since February 24.

With the onset of winter, some experts in the West are now predicting that the conflict will freeze. But the Ukrainians will almost certainly want to continue their streak of victories as long as Russia mobilizes much-needed fighters. In winter, much of the ground freezes, allowing main battle tanks to be used in open terrain again after the autumn mud season.

The Ukrainians have received hundreds of thousands of winter uniforms from the West and supplies via Poland and Romania also seem to be working. The Russians, on the other hand, suffer from logistical problems, poor morale and corruption. The withdrawal from Kherson significantly shortened the length of the front for both sides; much of the front now runs along rivers.

Russian supply routes remain in the picture

Regardless of where Ukraine strikes next, Russian supply routes to the Crimean peninsula remain a focus for Kiev. On the one hand, there is the strategically important bridge of Kerch, which directly connects Crimea with the Russian mainland. It is now being repaired after a Ukrainian attack.

The second, longer route runs along the coast through Mariupol and Melitopol. He would be seriously endangered in the event of a successful Ukrainian offensive in the central front area of ​​Zaporizhia. If there were a breakthrough there, it could decide the war. (aargauerzeitung.ch)