Almost two weeks ago, the Ukrainian army achieved its last major success: the recapture of the city of Kherson. This was after the Russian troops announced their withdrawal.
Can another coup d’état be expected in the near future? Yes, says Volodymyr Havrilov (64), the Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine. In an interview with the Sky News TV channel, he says that Ukrainians can return to Crimea this year! The peninsula has been under Russian control since its annexation in 2014.
Victory is a “matter of time”
On top of that. Havrilov makes other extremely optimistic predictions. He believes the whole war with Russia could be over by the end of spring. And with a triumph of the Ukrainians. It’s “only a matter of time,” he says.
His country will never stop fighting until victory is achieved. Not even an atomic bomb and the harsh winter would stop the soldiers. But is the fighting spirit he exudes enough to hold back Russian President Vladimir Putin (70)?
“Putin disappears – physically or politically”
Hardly likely. Therefore, Havrilov hopes for the so-called “black swan”: this means an event that no one expects, but which has great consequences.
“I think Russia can face a ‘black swan’ in its country, within Russia.” This, in turn, could help Ukrainians succeed in Crimea, he says. It is quite possible that his troops will be in Crimea by the end of December and that cannot be ruled out, he adds.
But what exactly should this “black swan” event be in Russia? “Putin disappears. For some reason. Physically or politically,” Havrilov replies. Or in combination with a “very disillusioned society in terms of their losses”.
No winter break
Be that as it may, one thing is certain for Ukraine: “There is a decision within society in Ukraine that we will go to the end,” says Havrilov. That is why Ukraine is currently preparing the winter offensive under high pressure. There’s no such thing as a break.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently wrote in its daily report: “Winter weather could disproportionately harm ill-equipped Russian troops in Ukraine, but well-equipped Ukrainian troops are unlikely to halt their counter-offensive because of the winter weather.” (Man)