Ukraine suffered the heaviest rocket fire since the Russian invasion on Tuesday. The devastation is enormous: at times ten million people were without electricity. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians shot down a large number of precision weapons.
But Russia paid a high price for this. The ISW assumes that the Russians can no longer continue to destroy the power plants and supply systems at such a rate.
It is not yet known whether this means that Russia will enter a ceasefire in the winter. Chief of Staff Mark Milley, 64, told CNN the Russian military was “very badly battered” after nearly nine months of war in which the Kremlin achieved almost none of its goals.
Is there a winter break?
“There could be a political solution if the Russians pull out politically,” Miley said at a news conference following the missile strikes. According to current knowledge, the Russian forces will not be able to launch a major offensive. “The Russians will probably take a winter break to buy time,” military expert Georg Häsler said in an interview with Blick TV last weekend.
Without high-precision weapons, Russia will no longer be able to target its electricity and water networks in such a targeted manner. But they hit their target more accurately and can be controlled. And Russia has done that in the past. According to Sky News, 50 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has already been destroyed.
Russia plays for time
A few years ago, Russia was one of the largest arms exporters in the world and largely self-sufficient, writes ‘Focus’. According to “Wirtschaftswoche”, President Vladimir Putin (70) said in 2014 that Russia could produce all weapons itself. “In addition, it is a matter of national security that we should refrain from importing weapons in the future,” the Kremlin chief said. At that time, sanctions had already been imposed on Russia for its annexation of Crimea. But once all the missiles have been fired, the domestic arms industry cannot keep up. As in the past, Russia could buy time to replenish its arms stocks.
The threat of airstrikes remains for Ukraine. The British Foreign Office sees no sign of a pause yet. Even without high-precision weapons, there are drones and ballistic missiles. The latter are shot down and can no longer change their jobs – but this also causes more collateral damage. Russia is said to be negotiating the next arms deal with Iran. A complete ceasefire therefore seems unlikely.