Former US President Donald Trump (76) does not reckon with losses. He made this clear when he announced that he would be running again for the 2024 US presidential election. The strategists in the Republican party probably would have liked it if he had not officially announced his candidacy until after December 6. Then there will be a second round in the state of Georgia between Republican Herschel Walker (60) and his Democratic opponent Raphael Warnock (53). Republicans fear Trump’s announcement could mobilize Democratic voters there.
Trump has ignored it. For Thomas Jäger (62), political scientist and US expert from the University of Cologne, Trump’s advance does not come as a surprise: “It was clear. Donald Trump’s ego only fits in the White House,” Jäger tells Blick “And he has next to take that approach again. “It now remains to be seen whether the supporters would stay.
Mobilizing effect on both sides
“The fact that Trump announced his candidacy so early has to do with the fact that he wants to be the first to register and that everyone else should now think carefully about whether they are really running against him,” says Jäger. According to the political scientist, Trump’s announcement has a mobilizing effect on both sides. “Trump lets people vote.” That applies to his own constituency, but even more so to democratic and independent voters.
According to Jäger, this was why Trump lost the last presidential election. This is also why the midterm elections fell short of expectations. “The Democrats and their supporters and many independents want to see everyone in the White House, except Donald Trump.”
Opponents be careful
Aside from Trump, no Republican has officially entered the race. Ron DeSantis (44), the governor of Florida, is considered the new star of the party after his re-election and is Trump’s biggest opponent within the party in terms of a possible candidacy. However, at 44, DeSantis is still “a very young man” for politics, Jäger says. “You’ll see if he wants to fight Trump.”
Also in the room is a candidacy from Mike Pence (63). Trump’s former vice president said in a TV interview that he was considering running for office. At the same time, he presented himself as a Republican who had broken away from Trump. It remains to be seen whether he is really serious about running for office.
Biden wants to make a decision in early 2023
It is now up to Trump to assert himself as the official candidate in the primaries, i.e. the primaries in his own party. If he doesn’t succeed, some even believe he’s capable of a wild candidacy — the ultimate nightmare scenario for Republicans.
“I think his chances of becoming a candidate in the Republican Party are very good,” says Jäger. For the Democrats, this could be an advantage. Because: According to Jäger, Trump’s chances of being re-elected as president are slim. “He has proven that he can mobilize opponents faster,” says the political scientist.
Ultimately, Trump’s chances also depend on which candidate the Democrats are running with. Incumbent Joe Biden (79), whom Trump lost to in 2020, reiterated his intention to re-enter. He held out a final decision early next year.