Why we should not write off Trump yet Switzerland only partially satisfied with the climate conference

There is an old argument in the social sciences that revolves around the question: who determines the course of history, the economic foundation of a society? Or great men and women? The proponents of the basic economic thesis base themselves on the, albeit vulgar Marxist, thesis that «being defines consciousness». The idealists are against these materialists. They are convinced that our fate was determined by men like Napoleon and Caesar or women like Elizabeth I and Catherine the Great.

The Donald Trump phenomenon can also be viewed materialistic and idealistic. Here’s the materialistic version:

Right-wing populism predates Trump

Daron Acemoglu is an economist and teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He is best known for his book Why Nations Fail, which he co-wrote with James Robertson. (Nice by the way.)

In Foreign Affairs magazine, he now represents the thesis that one can only understand Trump by dealing with the circumstances that made him possible. “Right-wing populism was not created by Trump’s deranged charisma,” Acemoglu says. “(…). Right-wing populism established itself as a powerful political force two decades before Trump.” Acemoglu also points to similar developments in Brazil, Hungary, India, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey, where the rise of strongmen was also made possible thanks to economic conditions.

One reason for this in the US, Acemoglu says, is the decline in the number of unemployed workers. This population group has been hit particularly hard by globalization. Their wages not only stagnated, they were sometimes drastically reduced. At the same time, the wealth of a small minority exploded. This inequality and hatred of the elite laid the foundation for political volatility.

“In 2016, the United States was ripe for a populist movement, and it still is,” said Acemoglu, concluding that only strengthening democratic institutions and better regulation of globalization and digitalization can remedy the situation in the long term.

Trump has become a cult figure

Jan-Werner Müller also represents an idealistic variant in «Foreign Affairs». He sees the problem with the person of Donald Trump and the state of the Grand Old Party (GOP). Müller is a political scientist at Princeton University.

“Trump has managed to turn the Republican Party into a cult of personality,” Muller said. “Everything else, for example, critical loyalty to the party but not to a person, let alone open opposition, has become impossible. It’s just not possible to uphold your reputation as a Republican by criticizing the former president.”

Trump’s personality cult threatens American democracy; and the people who have fallen into this cult should be deprogrammed as cult victims. “We need to think more about how we can create safe spaces for Trump supporters where they can admit they’ve been betrayed,” Muller said.

Trump’s cult of personality has left the GOP in a dilemma as the ex-president is most likely to announce his re-election as president tomorrow. This is despite the results of the midterms begging not to.

However, Trump is currently a loser. He is responsible for the defeat in the 2018 midterm elections, as well as his defeat in 2020 and the crucial votes in the Georgia Senate in January 2021. He is currently at least partially responsible for the lack of a “red wave” for the Republicans.

GOP race management knows that a new Trump candidacy in 2024 would lead to disaster. The all-important independent voters don’t want a sequel to the Trump chaos movie. The evaluation of the first surveys showed this very clearly. Powerful Republican patrons have also indicated that they would no longer donate to Trump. Even media mogul Rupert Murdoch has at least partially distanced himself.

However, the ex-president has a solid base in the party. A majority of Republicans still want him to return to power in 2024. Trump can also count on loyal supporters in the House of Representatives, where Republicans are likely to get a paper-thin majority. Notably, the so-called “Freedom Caucus” still blindly follows Mar-a-Lago’s instructions, and without this group of fanatics — people like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Matt Gaetz — the likely majority leader Kevin McCarthy can do absolutely nothing.

Trump also has stand-up qualities. After storming the Capitol, he seemed to be ready at first. Within weeks, however, key Republicans made the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago, kissed Trump’s ring and joined the Big Lie choir. Well-known GOP representatives have already sided with Trump, for example Elise Stefanik of New York, the number three Republican MP.

The GOP is therefore in a tricky position: common sense dictates that it should dump Trump and look for an alternative. Florida governor Ron DeSantis has the best cards right now. The stomach, or rather the base, indicates that getting away from your idol Trump is not even a dream. Violent directional conflicts, even real fratricidal warfare, therefore arise within the GOP.

Max Weber, the great German sociologist of the last century, proposed a Solomonic solution to the controversy mentioned at the outset: the materialists would certainly be right that economic conditions have a significant influence on our thinking. But at certain times, charismatic leaders can tip the scales.

The US is currently in such a situation. The smallest shifts in the proportion of voters have a huge impact. A few thousand votes in a few swingstates will decide who goes to the Supreme Court and with it the fate of the abortion issue. Whether there will be a Green New Deal and whether Ukraine can continue to hope for military aid.

This deadlock has a lot to do with the economic situation in the US. In this situation, however, a charismatic leader can make all the difference. For better or for worse, as Trump’s example shows.