For months, Russia and Ukraine fought over the city of Kherson. After Russia managed to occupy the strategically important site immediately off the annexed peninsula of Crimea in March, the forces of President Vladimir Putin (70) have become increasingly defensive in recent weeks. And the pressure kept growing. On Wednesday, the Defense Ministry pulled the string and announced the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the city in southern Ukraine.
“This development is a disaster for Russia,” Marcus Keupp, lecturer in military economics at ETH Zurich’s Military Academy, told Blick. “This deduction is the culmination of a development that has already been visible over the past two weeks.”
In early November, Russia began evacuating thousands of civilians and the city was also looted. “All of this was in preparation for the current deduction.”
Deduction not thought through from a strategic point of view
It is estimated that there are between 18,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers directly at the front. According to the ETH expert, they were probably informed of the deduction via television. Keupp on Blick: “I can’t imagine with the best will in the world that the Russians have thought strategically about this withdrawal.”
The troops are surrounded from the north and west and can only withdraw via the Dnieper River, the expert explains (see map). “However, many of the bridges over the river have been badly damaged by Ukrainian rocket fire and can only be crossed by light vehicles. So it is impossible to evacuate tens of thousands of soldiers at once.”
Escape across the river is also impossible. “The Dnieper is about two kilometers wide at Kherson and freezing cold at this time of year. Just swimming across the river is impossible,” says Keupp.
A fall by the Russians seems unlikely
Therefore, the Ukrainians now have the opportunity to deal a serious blow to the Russian army. “Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are crowding on the edge of the Dnieper. The troops are increasingly surrounded by the Ukrainian front, there is no way out. The Russian troops can surrender or suffer heavy casualties, there is no other option.” This situation is also further deteriorating morale within the Russian army.
However, Keupp does not believe that the Russians are setting a trap for the Ukrainians and are merely pretending to withdraw from Kherson. “That would not make sense from a strategic military point of view. For such an ambush, the Russian army would need an area to lure the Ukrainians into and from which there is no escape. However, in Kherson Russia is completely surrounded – and the Russian troops should not allow house-to-house fighting.”
Will Russia blow up the dam after all?
Dominik Knill (63), president of the Swiss Officers’ Society, also assumes in an interview with Blick that Russia is withdrawing its troops from Kherson. “But I don’t think the Russians will leave the whole area to the Ukrainians without a fight.” Above all, the offensive and high-profile announcement on Russian state television made his ears prick up. “As a strategist, all alarm bells ring for me in such a case.”
According to Knill, it is conceivable that Russia would withdraw its troops, allow the Ukrainians to invade and then launch a tactical attack on the enemy forces, for example by blowing up the Kakhovka dam north of Kherson. Such an explosion would flood the entire area – including Kherson.
“I certainly believe that Russia is capable of such a blow,” says Knill. “In the past two weeks, the Russian army has evacuated the majority of the civilian population, so an explosion would probably almost exclusively affect military personnel. Russia has experience with such actions – and the Ukrainians would be in a very uncomfortable position,” the Swiss said. colonel.
“Then the war is over”
The announcement is therefore probably not a turning point in the war. “I rather think the announcement is a ruse. Russia has experience with stratagems.” In general, Knill assumes that military combat operations will fade into the background in the coming months. “Both sides are weakened, winter is a good time to take a break. In the meantime, However, Russia could try to further break the will of the Ukrainian people with further missile strikes on critical infrastructure.”
ETH strategist Markus Keupp is more optimistic. He says: “In my opinion, the Ukrainians strategically won the war with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson. If the Ukrainian army now acts competently, it is only a matter of time before the entire Russian front collapses – then the war would be over.”