“The decision to defend the left bank of the Dnieper is not an easy one, but we will save the lives of our soldiers and the combat effectiveness of the troop group.” With these words, Russian General Sergei Surovikin (67) announced on Wednesday the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the city of Kherson.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (67) approved. «I agree with your conclusions and proposals. For us, the life and health of Russian soldiers are always a priority. We must also consider the threat to civilians. (…) Continue with the withdrawal of the troops, » Shoigu said at a meeting, as can be seen in the video of the Ria Novosti news agency.
Accordingly, in the future, the new defense line will be set up on the left bank of the Dnieper. According to Surovikin, the withdrawal of the troops should take place “in the near future”.
Delivery problems due to missing bridges
But why did Vladimir Putin’s (70) troops now have to give up the strategically important city they occupied in the early days of the war?
After the Ukrainian army launched attacks on key river crossings – the Antonov Bridge near Kherson and the bridge at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station – Russian soldiers were trapped by supply problems.
The Russians then tried to provide reinforcements, ammunition and equipment with barges. British intelligence wrote in its daily war publications on October 22 that it was the first time “in decades” that the Russian army had to build an inland waterway bridge.
«The area on the right bank of the Dnieper was difficult to supply because of the destroyed bridges. Therefore, it was dangerous for the troops to stay there. From a military point of view, this beachhead was worthless to the Russian army,” Russian military expert Jan Matvyeev told the independent news portal Important Stories.
It was all over on November 3. The Ukrainians had destroyed the makeshift crossing.
Trouble defending against attacks
In addition, the Kiev troops shelled ammunition depots and enemy positions. On October 24, a base was attacked by Chechen militants in the Kherson region. 23 “Kadyrovites” – based on Ramzan Kadyrov (46) – died. The Chechen ruler confirmed this in a Telegram post three days later.
That also cost the Russians a lot of strength, explains the analyst of the Russian research group “Conflict Intelligence Team”, Kirill Mikhaylow. “Significant amounts of equipment, personnel and ammunition were deployed to counter the Ukrainian attacks. All this made the situation quite dire and potentially critical.”
Despite this, the troops remained there for several more weeks. Strategy expert Marcel Berni (34) of ETH Zurich’s Military Academy told Blick in late October that the Kremlin was probably about prestige. It is “a classic dilemma between military and political logic”.
Withdrawal justified with human lives
Now military logic seems to have gotten the upper hand. In the end, the Russian soldiers had no choice but to give up their position in the city of Kherson. Already on October 18, Surovikin spoke of a “difficult situation” that could require “hard decisions”.
On November 3, the pro-Russian deputy governor of the region Kirill Stremouzov said: “Our troops will probably withdraw to the left bank of the river.” The 45-year-old died in a car accident in the Kherson region on Wednesday, just before Shoigu ordered the withdrawal.
Battle on the Left Bank?
The city of Kherson, which lies on the right bank of the river, will soon be out of Russian control. But will the Russians be able to hold the position on the left? Jan Matvyeev believes it will be “a little easier” for the Russian military. «The line will go along the Dnieper, crossing it in battle is extremely risky, Ukrainians, of course, will not make such attempts yet. There will simply be too many losses,” says the expert.
Ukrainian military expert Oleksiy Melnik takes a similar stance. “I can’t imagine which general would do that,” he told Key Stories. Instead, the Ukrainian military would continue to destroy Russian supply chains, camps and bases. “So that Surovikin eventually has to make another ‘hard decision’.”
“Big defeat for Putin”
Matveeyev believes Putin will try to “freeze the front everywhere” and then negotiate and reach a ceasefire. “I don’t think Kiev will agree to this, and the liberation of the remaining areas will not be long in coming,” he added.
Politically, the withdrawal from the right bank is “a major defeat for both the military and Putin himself. They will try to justify it by saying they care about the people, but that will not be convincing. Because everyone knows that Putin is on people shit.” (Man)