3 scenarios for the midterms – and the consequences for Joe Biden WHO: “Climate change is already destroying us”

November 8 is Election Day in the United States. It will be a long and exciting day. The votes will probably be counted until late in the evening. Experts warn: Much is at stake for American democracy.

In keeping with the drama, there is also a total lunar eclipse on election night, leading to a blood moon. A positive energy boost from the cosmos? Annika Brockschmidt hopes the midterms fall under a lucky star. ‘Because it’s not a normal by-election: democracy is under discussion’reports the American expert on Twitter.

Election deniers can enter influential offices

Brockschmidt goes on to explain that many Republican candidates openly admit: They want to destroy the democratic system from within. These people can get into positions of influence.

35 seats in the Senate are filled, the House of Representatives is re-elected and new governors and state secretaries are appointed.

The governors of the federal states are comparable to the prime ministers of the federal states in Germany. “Secretaries of State” are something like the interior ministers and the highest-ranking election monitors in a state. In many states it is within their power to order recounts after elections or even to refuse to recognize an election result.

According to Brockschmidt, so-called election deniers can manipulate the results of future elections with this. To this day, many MAGA Republicans – those who believe in Trump’s ‘Make America great again’ philosophy – claim that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election.

MAGA Republicans are eroding confidence in the electoral system

In an interview with US television channel “CNN”, Republican Kari Lake dodged the question of whether she would accept an election defeat. “I will win the elections and accept this result”, she replied. The moderator asked the question again, and again Lake gave the same answer word for word. She will accept her victory as a result.

According to Atlantic magazine, Lake is Donald Trump’s “leading lady of the MAGA movement.” With her far-right position, she wants to become governor of Arizona.

For US expert Dominik Tolksdorf, one of the biggest questions is: will Republicans recognize the election results? “If the politicians and voters contest the election, there could certainly be demonstrations,” he told Watson. He also does not completely rule out political violence.

It is a worrying development that many Americans no longer trust the electoral system, says the political scientist of the German Association for Foreign Relations. “In some states, there is a risk that future elections will no longer be fair,” he says.

The anti-democratic Republican candidates could hold key state-level positions after the midterm elections, such as in Arizona or Pennsylvania. This gives them enormous influence on future electoral processes and the certification of the results.

But what are the possible outcomes of the midterms and what do they mean for the administration of incumbent President Joe Biden?

The journalist Amber Phillips analyzed the three most likely scenarios for the American newspaper “Washington Post”.

Scenario 1

Republicans win House of Representatives

According to Amber, this outcome would divide Congress. Republicans could then have a say in financial support, for example for Ukraine or for social assistance programs.

They could also drop pending investigations into Jan. 6, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. Instead, Republicans can launch other investigations, including into the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in early August.

And the Democrats? In this scenario, you still have the majority in the Senate. According to Amber, they could only appoint more judges.

scenario 2

Republicans win Senate and House of Representatives

In this scenario, Republicans can completely take the wind out of Biden’s agenda. According to Amber, significant savings can be made in the social field. A Republican-led Congress could also move forward with a national abortion ban.

scenario 3

Democrats Keep Senate and House of Representatives

If the Democrats can keep both chambers, they can stay on track. This scenario allows them to push through legislation that protects, for example, same-sex marriage. They also manage to protect access to contraceptives and abortion options.

According to Amber, the chance of this scenario is the smallest. The current US administration almost always loses seats in Congress in midterm elections.

Trump is on the starting blocks

According to the American journalist, one of the first two scenarios is the most likely. The Biden administration would therefore have two bumpy years ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The greater the Republican victory, the more Donald Trump will feel compelled to run for the White House seat again. The 76-year-old commented:

“Get ready,” he said at a Republican campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa.