The UN has calculated that the world population should exceed eight billion by the middle of this month. What this means for us and the planet and humanity, we explain on the basis of five pressing questions about the population explosion.
8 billion people! Is the population only increasing?
no A large-scale study published in 2020 in the journal The Lancet assumes that the world population will only increase to 8.8 billion people by 2064. After that, all humanity will shrink again. 183 of the 195 countries will then have such a low birth rate that only immigration can sustain the population. The research differs significantly from the United Nations projections: shortly before that, they assumed a population growth to about 11 billion people by the year 2100.
The head of the study, Professor Christopher Murray (60) of Washington University in Seattle, knows why the world’s population is already shrinking in about 40 years: “If women have more access to education and contraception, they will choose less than 1, on average. 5 kids.”
Where is the population growing fastest and where is it shrinking?
A constant population would require an average birth rate of 2.1 children per woman – if the percentage is higher, the population grows, below that it shrinks. The global fertility rate, or the number of births per woman, currently stands at 2.3 percent.
In about 101 countries it is below this number, in seven, including Kosovo and Monaco, it is almost exactly 2.1 percent. This means that in more than half of all countries in the world the birth rate is stable or declining. Switzerland, by the way, is in the bottom third with a birth rate of 1.46 children per woman – and is only growing through immigration.
In general, the population in western countries is shrinking, namely in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. But even in several Asian countries, the birth rate is not what it used to be: Japan is already suffering from an aging society, and China has barely managed to raise its fertility rates again, even after the one-child policy. According to various sources, the percentage in densely populated India is currently between 2.0 and 2.18 children per woman – and the trend is declining.
Nearly all countries in sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to continue to grow.
Is it good or bad for our society if there are more people?
Scientists disagree on this question. The social contracts of many cultures are based on young people supporting the elderly with their work. In our country this is done through our pension system, in other cultures the descendants take care of their parents and grandparents directly. Many young people in a society ensure that the elderly also do well.
If, on the other hand, the birth rate falls, this intergenerational contract no longer works: the pension funds have too little money to fund the pensions, or there are simply no offspring to take care of their parents. Several economists therefore assume that healthy population growth is also necessary for a strong economy. Others criticize this system, pointing out that our planet cannot tolerate more people with their resource consumption. In summary, one might say: in the short term, healthy population growth in our Western economic system is good, but in the long term it is harmful worldwide.
How does the number of people affect climate change?
For Professor Hermann Lotze-Campen (56) of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, population growth is one of the main factors influencing climate change. But: Most CO₂ emissions will continue to take place in rich countries in the near future. In contrast, regions with high population growth, such as Africa, would currently contribute little to total emissions. The trained farmer, agricultural scientist and specialist in sustainable land use sees our food consumption as a good way to reduce CO₂ emissions: by producing and consuming much less milk and meat.
How do we feed all these people?
According to the UN annual report on world hunger, 828 million people were starving in 2021 – 150 million more than before the outbreak of the Covid 19 pandemic. That is almost 10 percent of the world’s population. Nearly 3.1 billion, or nearly 40 percent of the world’s population, also suffer from malnutrition, preventing them from affording a balanced, healthy diet. The future scenarios are bleak: Even before the war in Ukraine, the climate catastrophe caused by drought and floods decimated crops. Drought has caused crops to fail this summer in the US cereal belt, western China and much of Europe. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which normally exports grain all over the world, exacerbates this situation. The UN report therefore calls on governments to relax trade restrictions such as food tariffs.