At a Glance: The Most Important Of Tuesday’s Midterm Election New Twitter Owner Musk Is Campaigning For Republicans Ahead Of US Election

They are considered a mood barometer for the president, but also for the general situation in the US: the midterms. Parts of the Senate and the entire House are re-elected and the cards are completely reshuffled.

Only the names of Democrats and Republicans are visible on this year’s Midterm ballots. But there’s much more than that: Many Americans decide current affairs based on the positions—sometimes just one—of the candidates. In some cases, very close races are expected.

Here’s a quick summary of the key things about the midterms:

What will be chosen?

The term “midterm elections” reveals that these are midterm elections – elections of the US parliament that take place between presidential elections. This parliament, also called Congress, consists of two chambers: the Senate and the House of Representatives.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third – 35 out of 100 seats – from the Senate are up for the elections on Tuesday 8 November.

How do the elections work?

In the Senate The representatives of the individual states of the US sit. Every state, regardless of size, has representation in the form of two Senate seats. The senators are directly elected by majority vote. A mandate lasts six years. As a result, about a third of the Senate is re-elected every two years.

Unlike the Senate, the number of representatives depends in the House of Representatives depending on the size of the state. The 435 seats of the House represent the same number of constituencies. Citizens who have the right to vote elect representatives for their congressional district every two years.

Both chambers are elected by majority vote (major elections). That means whoever gets the most votes within a state (in the case of the Senate) or a constituency (House of Representatives) goes to the United States Congress.

How are the seats allocated for the elections?

Senate

As of early 2021, the 100 senate seats will be held by 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans and 2 Independents (independents) busy. Since the two independents — including left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont — are on the left side of the political spectrum, they are usually classified as Democrats. This balances power in the Senate.

In the event of a tie, the President of the Senate decides by casting a vote. Since this position is elected by the Vice President under the US Constitution, it is currently held by Kamala Harris. The Democrats thus have a de facto majority in the Senate.

Of the 35 seats to be filled in the Senate, 14 held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans.

House of Representatives

Also in House the Democrats occupy a – albeit paper thin – majority: 222 seats are taken by Democrats, 211 by Republicans and two by independents. In this case, the independents are counted among the Republicans. So there is a democratic majority of 222 against 213. That is very narrow: a majority is obtained from 218 seats.

All seats in the House of Representatives are eligible for re-election. 36 governors are not eligible for re-election. Of these, 20 are Republicans and 16 Democrats.

What are the most exciting duels in the Senate?

As always, the focus of these elections is on the so-called swing states. These are states that vote neither traditionally Republican nor traditionally Democratic. The results in the swing states are usually very close – but often decisive for who wins the majority.

For this reason, the states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona (according to CNN the crucial state this year) and the highly anticipated Texas. It gets even more exciting in the Senate – any of these races can determine the majority. Special attention is paid to the following five races, the outcome of which is likely to be very close:

Georgia: Warnock vs Walker

Democrat Raphael Warnock is running in this year’s election because he only served the term of a previous senator. The pastor takes on ex-football player Herschel Walker. One of the reasons Walker has recently attracted attention is that he lied on several counts.

Despite the numerous scandals surrounding the ex-football star, he has recently overtaken his Democratic opponents in the polls. It is now ahead by a difference of more than a percentage point.

Pennsylvania: Fetterman vs. oz

Since the previous incumbent is no longer active, the cards in this race are completely reshuffled. Democrat John Fetterman takes on Republican Mehmet Oz. Oz is a surgeon and has made his mark as a TV doctor on his own show called “Dr. The Oz Show career. Pennsylvania Vice Governor John Fetterman made headlines in the only televised duel with Oz when he suffered a stroke on camera. As Oz kept up the pace, Fetterman grew increasingly confused and spoke slower.

Fetterman led the polls for a long time. The predictions now see the two neck and neck.

Arizona: Kelly vs. masters

Here too, the race for the Senate seat has an illustrious flavor: the Democrat Mark Kelly is a former astronaut. Two years ago, he won the first Senate seat for the Arizona Democrats in nearly 60 years. His opponent is conservative tech investor Blake Masters.

Kelly led the polls by a comfortable margin of nearly 10 percentage points for a long time. Although the Democrat is still in the lead, his lead has dwindled to about two percentage points shortly before the election.

Wisconsin: Barnes vs. Johnson

Skin color also plays a big part in this race: in addition to more gun controls, Mandela Barnes is also a strong advocate for blacks’ rights. Johnson, on the other hand, has been accused by black voters of playing on racial fears by portraying Barnes’ complexion as “darker” and calling him “dangerously liberal” in campaign spots.

The polls have turned in this race: Until mid-September, Democrat Barnes led by a relatively comfortable lead, now Republican Johnson is more than three percentage points ahead.

Ohio: Ryan vs Vance

Republican incumbent Rob Portman will not run for re-election, leaving the Ohio Senate seat vacant. Democrat Tim Ryan is no stranger to this: he has been a member of the United States House of Representatives for his state of Ohio since 2013. Now he wants to run for the Senate, but has to fight against wealth manager and writer JD Vance.

In Ohio, too, there was a change in forecasts at the end of September, with Republican Vance leading the polls by more than four percentage points shortly before the election.

What do the polls say?

First of all: in congressional elections it is usually the ruling party that loses. In general, majorities can rarely be held for a long period of time, as a rule at least one of the two rooms changes color.

Yet in the summer it still looked like a “blue wave”: after the court ruling on abortion by the Supreme Court, there seemed to be a clear shift to the left, especially among women. Shortly before the elections there is no trace of this anymore: the momentum is clearly with the Republicans, writes CNN analyst Harry Enten a week before the midterms.

A day before the election, the odds in the Senate are 50/50, im House Republicans are more likely to take the majority, according to Politico.

Known for its accurate predictions, the Fivehirtyeight platform also predicts a victory for Republicans in the Senate — at a current 55 to 45 percent. Their predictions in the House of Representatives are even more drastic: according to the “Fivethiighteight” model calculations, Republicans there will win in 83 cases out of 100. (lacquer)