Why the time is not yet ripe for negotiations in the war in Ukraine Hackers from India allegedly attacked Cassis and Berset – the order for this came from Geneva

All wars come to an end and peace talks usually precede the cessation of hostilities. There is no indication that this will be any different in Ukraine.

Ever since Moscow’s expeditionary force ran into trouble, the Kremlin has wanted to freeze the fronts. The forces in the West that uncritically accept and disseminate Russian propaganda are therefore calling for a ceasefire, a “diplomatic solution” and immediate talks. Talking about a ceasefire always sounds good.

However, experience has taught the Ukrainians that Moscow rarely keeps the commitments it has made. For example, in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Russia pledged to respect Ukraine’s borders and renounce violence.

Offers – a pure mockery

In return, Kiev handed over its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia. Today, these similarities sound like pure mockery.

Russia did not respect Ukraine’s borders and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and parts of Donbass in 2014. Even the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 did not end the war that Moscow started. The Kremlin then simply took the position that it was not a party to the Minsk accords and that it had not stationed troops in the Donbass anyway. Those were outright lies.

Against this background, it will be difficult to convince Kiev of the Kremlin’s good and serious intentions in future talks. Especially since Russia has just escalated the war with the massive deployment of Iranian combat drones. Further escalation steps were the Russian partial mobilization and the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, which the Russians do not even have full control over.

The nuclear scenario is scare tactics

The fear of a further escalation, the use of nuclear weapons, turned out to be pure scaremongering. In late October, President Putin said it made neither political nor military sense to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He clearly denied the alleged intention to use the atomic bomb.

However, those who annex foreign territories are not good at demanding truce lines to hide the annexed territories behind them. Especially since the Russian expeditionary force in Ukraine is in a desolate state and should be happy if it can stabilize the fronts somewhat.

Clear signs of weakness

The response to the Ukrainian attack on the port of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula shows how weak the Russian position is: Moscow condemned the attack on warships of its Black Sea fleet as an act of terrorism and subsequently withdrew from the grain deal with the UN and Turkey. The Turks then simply organized a convoy of ships carrying Ukrainian grain from the port of Odessa to Istanbul. The Russian Black Sea Fleet was unable to prevent this and a short time later Moscow promised to honor the agreement again.

Ceasefire negotiations would give Moscow much-needed time to reorganize its expeditionary force in Ukraine and increase its force. Russia hopes to launch a major counter-offensive within months, thanks to newly mobilized troops and Iranian medium-range missiles, thus regaining the initiative.

Kiev is aware of this and wants to prevent that. Before the winter makes the fighting more difficult, the Ukrainians want to recapture as much territory as possible, including the southern provincial capital of Kherson.

Peace talks will only make sense if Moscow realizes that the war is lost for Russia. (aargauerzeitung.ch)