Every year, epidemiologists warn of rising corona numbers in the fall and winter. But this season everything is different: two weeks ago the number of new infections was 37,032, a week ago 30,305, this week only 23,867. Why is that?
“There are several reasons why the corona infections are currently decreasing,” Huldrych Günthard (61), an infectiologist at the University Hospital Zurich, told Blick. “We have had very mild temperatures in recent weeks and people have been outside a lot.” If there are fewer people in the rooms, fewer people will become infected.
Another deciding factor in the third year of Corona could be basic immunity. However, this is difficult to verify. “In the spring and summer we had a huge number of infections due to the ommicron varieties. In this way, together with the vaccinations, a relatively good immunity was built up. That then offers protection for a certain period of time,” summarizes the epidemiologist. “As a result, the wave peaked earlier than in the past two years.”
High number of unreported cases suspected
However, far fewer people are currently being tested for corona. “The wastewater measurements in the WWTPs again showed a high infection load in this wave. That means fewer people can be tested and we have a large number of unreported cases,” says Günthard. “The wave is not over yet, we are still at a fairly high level of new infections.”
Günthard warns that infections with the emerging cold could increase again. New variants may also arise. “Covid is still a new disease and raises many questions,” says the infectiologist. All in all, the situation should be assessed fundamentally differently this year than in 2020. “The Wuhan Alpha and especially the Delta variant were dangerous because there was little or no immunity in the population.” That changed a lot with the vaccinations. The old picture of the serious Covid disease is now very rarely visible.
“Corona’s drama has abated,” notes Günthard. Because there are less serious corridors and also much rarer deaths. The biggest problem in the hospital is the use of the wards. “We have too few beds – even without Covid,” says the infectiologist. Corona is not the only virus that brings people to the hospital. Because masks are no longer worn, flu viruses, for example, can spread enormously. Immunity to the flu may have declined in the past two years, Günthard says. The elderly are especially affected by severe flu courses, but children are also affected.
Long Covid and excess mortality raise questions
Günthard emphasizes that Long Covid in particular is a problem. “There are many people who suffer from Lung Covid, but we don’t have specific therapies for it.” This is also a financial burden on society when employees are sometimes absent for months. “We don’t really understand the disease and we can’t treat it effectively.” Long Covid has so far not been considered relevant enough by the BAG when it comes to tightening measures.
The excess mortality could also be related to Covid, says Günthard. “There are several indications for this. The excess mortality correlates several times with the past corona waves, also with the last two ommicron waves,” he explains. This indicates that the virus amplifies other diseases.
It is being discussed whether at most Covid could be responsible for increased heart attacks and strokes after infection. Especially in people who have risk factors for cardiovascular disease and who can therefore be held indirectly responsible for part of the excess mortality.
Masks can save time
Günthard makes an appeal to continue vaccinating. “The vaccination is probably also useful against excess mortality,” he is convinced. However, not 100 percent. Because the protection against infection drops again after a few months. “Therefore, Corona can also lead to serious diseases and complications in vaccinated people with previous health problems.”
The masks could again be a sensible measure for the future. “I think wearing a mask is not a loss of freedom. And this measure could give us time to better understand Lung Covid and excess mortality.”