Gasoline or abortion? What the US Midterms Could Decide The US Wants to Throw Iran Out of the UN Women’s Rights Commission

“Trump has won”! According to studies, about 30 percent of all Americans are convinced of this. They believe that Donald Trump’s election victory was “stolen” two years ago and that Joe Biden’s presidency is a big lie, a big lie. The ex-president himself still insists in each of his appearances that he has won the election.

“Trump has won”? I only saw such a sign on the side of the road on my rental car journey through the rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Virginia. These areas are Republican strongholds. Another sign was seen more often: “Don’t blame me. I voted for Trump.” At the very least, an ambivalent message.

The US is a politically deeply divided country. It’s a kind of truth. What is often overlooked is that there is a broad center struggling with the increasingly sharp polarization between the two major parties. The emotional state of my journey through the eastern US, the first since Trump’s 2016 election victory and Corona, was also ambivalent.

The wind has turned

It took me to places rich in history (Philadelphia, Gettysburg, Harpers Ferry, Charlottesville, Monticello, Appomattox, Colonial Williamsburg, Yorktown), to Washington with the wonderful Museum of African American History and Culture and finally to my favorite city New York for a couple of days. It was a journey through the diversity of the US.

Once again it was shown that this enormous country cannot be pigeonholed. That also applies to the midterm elections next Tuesday. Things looked good for the ruling Democrats for a long time. Lately, however, the wind has turned in the polls. They could lose control of the House of Representatives and even the Senate.

How “bad” is it really?

According to leading US media, the electorate wants to “punish” the Biden administration, mainly for economics and crime. These are the most important Republican issues. It doesn’t help Democrats that John Fetterman, a hopeful Pennsylvania Senate candidate, has delivered a poor performance in the televised debate.

But how “bad” is the country really? Inflation was the last 8.2 percent. Life has certainly become more expensive. During my trip, I paid between $3.50 and $4 a gallon for gasoline. That is ridiculously little compared to Switzerland, but in America it is painful for many in the car country.

High prices, little service

Other prices have also risen. Hotel rooms are almost absurdly expensive, especially in the cities, which is also due to the effects of the corona pandemic. Some houses are closed during this period. At the same time, the service is decreasing and the daily cleaning of the room is no longer guaranteed. Which leads to another, often overlooked aspect of the economy.

Particularly in the cities there are hardly any political signals, but there are many saying “Rent now”. Restaurants have to limit opening hours due to staff shortages, including in the “City that does not sleep”. The US job market has dried up. Long Covid plays a role in this, but there is still a lot of employment.

Violence in the subway

Even economists admit that the US economy is not developing according to the usual “rules”. Despite inflation, consumption remains strong. Over dinner in Washington, Renzo Ruf, CH Media’s US correspondent, told me about his summer vacation in Maine in the far northeast of the country: restaurants full, hotels full.

These can be snapshots. There is also a corona catch-up effect in America and many are suffering from inflation and high interest rates. But the picture remains ambivalent. This also applies to crime. It has increased especially in the cities. During my stay in New York, acts of violence on the subway caused a stir.

It wasn’t better before

Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul, who is fighting a tough reelection battle, have expanded police in the subway. But anyone who can remember New York in the 1980s shakes their head. At that time, as a tourist, you were even attacked by drug dealers in Manhattan’s Times Square.

Today, this idea seems bizarre. But that doesn’t matter to today’s residents. For them, subjective perception counts, and it is often negative. The New Yorkers don’t seem too scared to me. The city’s biggest problem is the consequences of the corona lockdowns, from which it has not yet fully recovered.

Abortions are out – right?

Will inflation and crime then determine the outcome of the midterm elections? Or is it a factor that has recently faded into the background: the Supreme Court’s withdrawal of the nearly 50-year-old fundamental right to abortion in June? According to some US commentators, the issue has been “eaten” and outrage has subsided.

The polls suggest so. Abortion therefore only plays a minor role in voting behaviour. But this impression can be misleading. A clear majority of women in the US support abortion. Many view the Supreme Court ruling as an attack on the right to self-determination over their bodies.

Women have mobilized

Experts from the United States describe abortions as a “sleep problem” that will only have an effect in the polling stations. For example, Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings think tank is “a little skeptical” about the latest research on the subject, she told ABC television. Because women’s interest in it is “huge”.

There are signs of this. The number of registered female voters has increased significantly in some cases. We are talking about the Dobbs effect, referring to the Supreme Court ruling. Since then, Democrats have increased their vote share in several Congressional midterm elections compared to 2020 and have achieved stunning results.

Small movement, big effect

Could it be that this momentum has died out? The unusually high number of early and postal votes for midterms contradicts this. When it comes to women’s voting, “very small movements can have an impact in very, very large numbers,” Elaine Kamarck said on ABC. Because women make up the majority of the electorate.

Dobbs effect mobilization by mid-2022 may be underestimated, as will Trump effect mobilization in the 2016 and 2020 elections. That would give Democrats a boost. But it could also be that the polls are correct and the Republicans are taking over Congress.

With just under a week to go before the election date, the outcome is more open than one might think. Even on my journey there was no clear picture. The impression remains ambiguous, and that actually fits perfectly with this both disturbing and fascinating country.